#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Possible Directions of the US-Iran War and Insights for the Equity Market

To date, the equity market remains highly sensitive to the Iran conflict. Therefore, assessing the current trajectory of the war has become an important basis for timing decisions. Keywords: US-Iran war, benefiting sectors
1. The Most Likely War Development
The US-Iran war has been ongoing for over a month, stirring global capital markets. Japanese and Korean stock markets frequently hit daily limit-ups or circuit breakers, which are highly abnormal phenomena. Remember, abnormal events do not happen easily; each occurrence often contains opportunities. The so-called "crisis" is a double-edged sword. Based on the current mobilization of both sides, what is the most probable next development?
We believe President Trump will launch limited ground operations to destroy Iran’s land-based missile positions guarding the Strait of Hormuz. Trump will send warships into the Persian Gulf to escort and forcibly open the Strait, causing oil prices to fall from high levels. A few steps of the scenario:
1. Trump assembles the 82nd Airborne Division, LPD amphibious ships, and other naval and air landing forces to land on the southwest coast of Iran;
2. Precisely locate and destroy Iran’s land-based missile sites;
3. Iran loses most of its anti-ship capabilities;
4. US warships enter the Persian Gulf to escort, boldly signaling to the world that the Strait of Hormuz is open;
5. Oil prices decline, and Trump declares victory;
6. The US "victory team" returns home, while Iran maintains limited control over the strait; (Trump is unlikely to stay long in the Persian Gulf, or Iran will repair its positions, turning the warships into targets, and the strait will ultimately fall under Iran’s control);
7. Oil prices remain in a medium-high range with prolonged fluctuations, and limited navigation through the Strait of Hormuz continues for a long time; (Once the US withdraws, Iran won’t keep the strait locked for long, or it would become a global enemy)
2. Final Negotiation
If our above scenario is correct, then the US will have bargaining chips with Iran. Ultimately, it’s about Iran giving up nuclear weapons and the US giving up regime change (which it cannot even achieve). Both sides will declare victory and cease hostilities. Don’t be fooled by the current 15 conditions from the US and the 5 from Iran; they are not real negotiation terms but intimidation tactics. Every war ends with negotiations, but before that, a major conflict may erupt, so everyone should buckle up.
3. Sectors Worth Noticing
The Russia-Ukraine war has led everyone to reevaluate gold and start to demystify the US dollar.
This US-Iran war has made the world realize that American imperial military power is no longer what it used to be, and its control over the Middle East has sharply declined.
The pricing system based on the petrodollar will face cracks.
This war has caused Middle Eastern elites to diversify their investments into safer assets, reducing their dependence on the US. Hong Kong and Singapore will become more attractive options.
This war has prompted the world to reassess energy security, renewables, wind and solar power, energy storage, and electric vehicles.
It has also led to a reevaluation of coal and coal chemical industries.