Are the market conditions worsening and are people starting to defend their rights?

Risk Reminder: The following content is for market analysis and observation based on publicly available information and does not constitute any investment advice. Market volatility is intense; all decisions are at your own risk.

1. Today’s (4.8) Key Market Overview

Trigger Event: US and Iran announce a two-week ceasefire, leading to a major shift in global market logic.

1. A-shares (Strongest)

- Shanghai Composite: +2.70%, at 3995 points (approaching 4000)

- ChiNext: +5.91%, STAR Market 50 +6.18%

- Trading Volume: 2.43 trillion yuan (800 billion yuan increase)

- Style: Tech resurgence (AI, chips, software lead the rally), cyclical sectors retreat

2. US Stocks (Mixed)

- Dow Jones: -0.18%

- NASDAQ: +0.10% (chip stocks rebound)

- Logic: Oil price plummet eases inflation worries, but markets are waiting to cut rates

3. Crude Oil (Plummeting)

- WTI Crude: -14.56%, at $96.51

- Brent: -13.00%

- Reason: Ceasefire removes supply risks, “buy the rumor, sell the fact”

4. Gold (Soaring)

- Spot Gold: +3.37%, up to $4,857 per ounce

- Logic: Falling oil prices → easing inflation → rising rate cut expectations, benefits zero-yield gold

5. Cryptocurrency (Rebound)

- BTC: Breaks through $72,500, +5%

- ETH: Breaks through $2,260, +8%

- Sentiment: Risk appetite recovers, short positions liquidated ($598 million)

2. Short-term Strategy Suggestions (Relatively Conservative)

🌏 A-shares (Main Focus: Technology)

- Bullish: Volume increase, long bullish candles, foreign capital returning, trend strengthening

- Focus: AI computing power, chips, semiconductors, domestic software

- Risk Control: Support at 3900 points; after large gains, expect some consolidation, avoid chasing highs

🏦 Gold (Bullish Trend)

- Bullish: Rate cut expectations + central bank gold purchases, strong long-term support

- Action: Buy on dips (4700–4750 range), stop-loss at 4650

⛽ Crude Oil (Bearish Dominance)

- Bearish: Ceasefire confirmed, short-term negative factors exhausted

- Action: Focus on shorting rebounds, watch for resistance at $100–102

₿ Cryptocurrencies (Sideways with Bias to Upside)

- Neutral to Bullish: Stabilizing above 70k, risk appetite returning

- Action: Buy low, sell high; support at 70,000, resistance at 75,000

- Risk Control: Highly volatile, strictly manage positions, set stop-loss

3. Key Observation Points (Next 48 Hours)

1. US-Iran ceasefire implementation: any new developments?

2. US CPI data (4.10): determines the pace of rate cuts

3. A-shares trading volume: can it stay above 20 trillion yuan?