"Can't Understand These 3 Prices, I Deserve to Be Bought Bottoms and Get Stuck"

Capture Bitcoin's cyclical bottom through three "numbers."
Break down this complex theory into three "price steps":
🚩 Step 1: Enter the "Value Zone" ( Realized Price: $54,145 )
The realized price can be seen as the market's "average purchase cost."
Signal: When the price falls below $54,145, the market enters the so-called "value range."
Note: Falling below this does not mean an immediate bottom, but rather a "bottoming process." The real bullish signal is when the price oscillates below and then reclaims above $54,145 after a few days.
🚩 Step 2: Enter the "Pain Period" ( MVRV 0.8x: $43,316 )
If the price drops below the average cost, the market will start to feel pain.
Signal: Historically, $43,316 (MVRV 0.8x) usually corresponds to the absolute bottom.
Logic: At this level, most holders are in loss, and those wanting to cut losses have mostly sold (end of capitulation). In the past four cycles, this indicator has been highly accurate in predicting bottoms.
🚩 Step 3: Search for the "Ultimate Floor" ( Fair Price: $40,487 )
This is a more stringent bottom indicator, capturing the most desperate moment of a bear market.
Signal: Currently, this "floor price" is around $40,487 (and is slowly declining over time).
Historical return: Historically, once the price drops below this level, the average return over the next year can reach 108%. This means if the price really falls just above $40k, it will be a once-in-a-lifetime entry point.
💡 Core Summary:
These three independent mathematical models are rarely aligned to point to the same target zone:
$54,145: Warning line, market begins to feel loss pressure.
$43,316: Pain line, marks the end of panic selling.
$40,487: Bottom line, historically proven ultimate bottom area with a very high success rate for entry.
⌛️ One sentence: $54k is the start of the value zone, $43k is the emotional limit, and $40k is a historic golden opportunity.