#美伊停火两周：冲突真的结束了吗？

Ceasefire Window Between the US and Iran: Will ETH Surge on Momentum or Stand Before the Storm?

When news of a two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran ignited the financial markets—WTI crude oil plunged 15%, BTC broke above $71,000, and the KOSPI index surged by nearly 6%—ETH also rode the emotional “springboard” to the $2,195 level. But behind this “ceasefire celebration” lie major disagreements over the agreement’s terms and undercurrents of the situation in the Middle East. ETH’s price action is being tightly bound by this “two-week gamble.”

1. Ceasefire Positives: Three Logical Factors Behind ETH’s Near-Term Surge

1. Instant Shift in Risk Appetite
The Middle East conflict is the key geopolitical variable that has been suppressing cryptocurrencies recently, and the ceasefire agreement’s implementation directly breaks the “safe-haven = selling crypto” linkage. Funds quickly rotate from traditional safe-haven assets like gold into the high-volatility crypto market. The link effect from BTC breaking above $71,000 helps ETH follow through by standing on the $2,190 support level—this short-term “emotional safety cushion” has already been laid out.

2. Easing Inflationary Pressure, Rate-Cut Expectations Heat Up
Crude oil prices plunged 15% to $93.79, directly easing the global inflation “energy anchor” pressure. Market expectations for a June rate cut by the Federal Reserve rose from 58% back to 65%. The downward path for real interest rates dovetails perfectly with ETH’s valuation logic as an “inflation-hedging digital asset,” which is also the core driver behind continued institutional inflows into ETH spot ETFs.
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