Sudden Closure of the Shipping Lane Could Impact Global Prices and Everyone's Wallet!

Latest news on April 9th: The Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route, has been closed again. This closure is due to escalating conflicts among the US, Iran, and Israel. The four main reasons are summarized as follows:

1. Breakdown of the Ceasefire Agreement: This week, mediated by Pakistan, the US and Iran reached a two-week temporary ceasefire. However, the agreement fractured within less than 24 hours, as Israel refused Iran's demand for a full ceasefire, undermining the foundation of the deal.

2. Israeli Airstrikes Trigger Retaliation: On April 8th, Israel launched airstrikes on Lebanon, which Iran considered a violation of the ceasefire spirit. In response, Iran shut down shipping through the strait as a countermeasure.

3. Navigation Disrupted in the Strait: Mine hazards remain in the waterway. Iran has updated navigation routes, causing approximately 2,000 merchant ships and oil tankers to be stranded in the Persian Gulf, disrupting shipping traffic.

4. Diplomatic Negotiations Stalled: A UN resolution on navigation has not been passed. Meanwhile, the US has issued an ultimatum to Iran, making it difficult to reconcile the conflicting positions.

Short-term: Range-bound oscillation between 70,000–72,000 with a slight weakness, prone to sharp fluctuations due to news.
- Support: 69,000–70,000
- Resistance: 72,800–73,000