Just been watching the on-chain data and there's something interesting happening with how whales and retail are moving in completely different directions right now. Whales loaded up heavy back in late February when BTC was in the $62K-$69K range during that Iran sell-off chaos. Soon as we bounced to $74K though, they started dumping about two-thirds of what they'd just accumulated. Meanwhile retail kept buying the dips as price fell back below $70K. That's the exact pattern that usually signals a correction isn't finished yet.

The fear and greed crypto sentiment has tanked to 12 on the index - basically extreme fear territory. And with 43% of Bitcoin's total supply underwater right now, every time we rally there's this wall of people just trying to break even rather than ride it higher. That's what stopped us at $74K last week. The moves have been wild intra-week but on a monthly basis we're basically flat - $60K in early Feb, $74K last week, now back around $68K. Lots of volatility, zero net progress.

So either the selling dries up and we break through $74K with real conviction, or retail runs out of dry powder and we test that $60K support for real. The whale behavior this week is basically screaming they're betting on the second scenario. The fear and greed index sitting this low tells you people are scared, and when smart money is offloading into that fear, it's worth paying attention to.