Why am I firmly optimistic about Kong? Let me share my personal view.

First, from the perspective of the four-year bull and bear cycle pattern, 59,800 is not the true bottom. The retracement from the 126,000 high is only 53%, whereas historically, bear markets typically retrace 70%–85%, so there is a high probability of a final dip ahead.

Second, the interest rate cut cycle remains shrouded in uncertainty. Although last night's core CPI data was somewhat favorable, the rise in energy prices has not yet fully transmitted to the goods sector; even if conflicts subside, it will take time for energy prices to fall back, and a substantial cooling of inflation still requires a long wait.

Third, the US-Iran conflict is far from truly over, and the likelihood of reaching a comprehensive agreement quickly in the short term is very low. This round of rally is mainly driven by ceasefire agreement sentiment; if the situation becomes tense again or warning signals appear, it could easily trigger a market black swan.