In recent times, the regulatory environment for暗号資産 has shifted significantly. The SEC and CFTC issued their first-ever joint guidance, laying out a clear framework that classifies cryptocurrencies and tokens into five categories: digital commodities, digital collectibles, digital tools, stablecoins, and digital securities. It was supposed to move away from enforcement on a case-by-case basis and create a more consistent regulatory environment.

Yet, when you look at Bitcoin’s price movements, this move toward regulatory clarity doesn’t seem to be functioning as a major positive factor. Even after the guidance was announced in mid-March, BTC has been unable to rise above $75,000, and has remained stuck. On Tuesday, it climbed to nearly $76,000, but then struggled to build momentum. As of now, the price is trading around $72,690.

Among market participants, the $75,000–$76,000 range is seen as an important resistance level. The CEO of India’s major exchange Giottus also pointed out, “For Bitcoin to show stronger momentum, it needs to break above this range.”

One reason prices are being held back is the FRB’s interest rate decision. The market broadly expects policy rates to remain unchanged, but attention is focused on the interest-rate outlook. Geopolitical risks related to イラン and fluctuations in energy prices are also shaking investor sentiment.

Another interesting development is emerging: ブータン. As of October 2024, it held about 13,000 BTC, but afterward it quietly sold roughly 70%. Its current holdings are 3,954 BTC, worth about $280 million. The country had been running Bitcoin mining operations using hydropower, but at least for over a year, no new inflows of capital have been recorded. In other words, it is likely slowing down its mining operations—or has already stopped them.

With profit margins squeezed by pressures from price, difficulty, and the halving, Bitcoin mining has likely become an economic burden for small countries. Meanwhile, institutional investors and other state players are increasing their holdings of 暗号資産 and gold. This contrasting pattern suggests that the economics of mining operations are becoming polarized.

In the long term, increased transparency in the regulatory environment should be positive for the cryptocurrency market. However, in the short term, interest-rate trends and geopolitical risks are still dominating price movements. The market may not have fully priced in the value of regulatory clarification yet.