Just came across something that completely reframes how we should be thinking about the current crypto market cycle. Michaël van de Poppe calls it the best chart in the ecosystem, and honestly after looking at it, I think he's onto something most people are missing.

Everyone's obsessed with Bitcoin's dollar price, but here's what's interesting: when you plot BTC against gold instead, the story changes dramatically. Bitcoin's valuation relative to gold is now at its lowest point ever. While most traders think we're only a few months into a bear phase since the October 2025 dollar peak, the BTC to gold ratio suggests we've actually been in a bear cycle since December 2024. That's roughly 14 months already.

What caught my attention is the historical pattern. Previous bear markets measured in BTC versus gold terms followed a similar timeline: roughly 14 months each time. November 2013 to January 2015. December 2017 to February 2019. April 2021 to June 2022. And here's the key detail—the weekly RSI bottomed at extreme lows before launching into multi-year uptrends. Right now, the weekly RSI on this chart is at its lowest level in history.

There's also an interesting reframe on that October 2025 all-time high everyone keeps talking about. Van de Poppe makes a solid point: that dollar peak might not have been genuine Bitcoin strength at all. Gold and silver were rallying hard at that time, which lifted the entire hard assets complex, including Bitcoin's dollar valuation. When you measure Bitcoin in gold terms instead, it's been declining for over a year.

So here's where this gets interesting for the crypto market. If the pattern holds, we might actually be in the final phase of the bear cycle, not the beginning. Extreme lows in the BTC to gold ratio historically preceded extended upward momentum. Previous cycle bottoms at similar levels turned out to be strong entry points for long-term positions. Betting on significant downside from here would require assuming this stretched ratio keeps deteriorating—which breaks with historical precedent.

The setup is worth paying attention to if you're thinking about long-term positioning in crypto.