Recently, I came across a chart analysis from CryptoQuant covering the market trends from 2025 through early 2026. The story behind the data is actually quite worth pondering.

Since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin's open interest has steadily climbed from 30 billion to around 35 to 45 billion in mid-term. The price also followed suit, surging to 110,000 to 125k USD in the first half of the year, then beginning to correct. But what happened in October changed everything.

In mid-October, open interest sharply collapsed from near 45 billion, the weekly high, plunging straight down to about 25 billion. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost marked October 10 to 11 as a structural turning point. The liquidation events during those days wiped out approximately 19 billion USD of leveraged positions, directly reducing over 70k BTC in open contracts. This was not just price volatility; fundamentally, it was a forced reset of the market’s risk tolerance.

Even more interesting is that after October, Bitcoin started decoupling from stocks. Prior to that, BTC behaved like a high-beta version of stocks—rising with the S&P 500, falling with it, with amplified effects. But after deleveraging in October, the 30-day correlation turned negative. Stocks rebounded at year-end supported by AI-driven earnings growth, but Bitcoin did not follow. The reason is that leverage couldn’t rebuild, liquidity weakened, and spot BTC ETFs even shifted from net buying pressure to net selling.

What’s fascinating about this recent reversal is that it appears more like tactical rotation rather than a fundamental structural change. As Iran’s geopolitical tensions escalated, stocks declined due to rising energy prices and inflation concerns, while Bitcoin strengthened during the same period. But Darkfost believes this is just short-term capital redistribution, not a fundamental reassessment of asset class standings.

Currently, the market is in a deleveraged state, with open interest at only 21.9 billion, far below the cycle high of 45 billion. This actually suggests that the structural resistance faced by new capital entering the market is much lower than a year ago. The key factors to watch moving forward are three: ETF liquidity (the main driver in 2024, but a persistent obstacle in 2026), whether open interest can recover (continued appreciation requires rebuilding derivatives market participation), and macro conditions (if geopolitical risks subside, the Iran-driven reversal could quickly reverse).

Right now, Bitcoin and stocks are reacting to different signals, which is uncommon in history. And based on the trend of open interest, all of this can be directly traced back to the liquidation storm in October. The latest market shows BTC around 71.6K, and the market is still waiting to see whether this decoupling will persist or reverse.