Trend Forecast

Script 1: Ceasefire agreement breaks down (Probability: 60%)
On the eve of April 21, because Israel keeps taking actions in Lebanon, the market will preview “negotiation failure” in advance. With the Strait of Hormuz toll station, the rigid buy-side demand brought by Bitcoin payments is highly likely to push the price into the 78,000-80,000 range next week
Script 2: Ceasefire extended (Probability: 30%)
Both sides step back one, agree to extend the observation period by another two weeks, and sentiment will cool down quickly. The price will most likely pull back to the crowded zone at 68,000 - 69,500, clearing out high-leverage longs, and entering high-level consolidation
Script 3: Reaching a substantive open-access agreement (Probability: 10%)
Iran withdraws the toll station, and parts of the U.S. sanctions are lifted (very low probability). Bitcoin’s “toll-fee necessity” disappears instantly, and the price will see a sharp de-valuation premium-retracement, testing the 62000 support at #美军封锁霍尔木兹海峡