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Spark in the Strait of Hormuz 🔥🔥🔥 US Navy Seizes Iranian Ship, Peace Talks Suspended
While markets were closed over the weekend, the chessboard in the Middle East was overturned again. US President Donald Trump's "naval blockade," Iran's de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and Tehran's rejection of the planned second round of peace talks in Islamabad pushed oil back above $100, while pulling Bitcoin back down to $76,000.
1. 🧐What happened in the last 72 hours?
- Operation Touska: On Sunday, the US Navy stopped the Iranian-flagged cargo ship M/V Touska in the Gulf of Oman. The destroyer USS Spruance fired on the ship's engine room, "creating a hole," after it ignored warnings, and then the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit boarded the ship. Trump said on Truth Social, "We have full control of the ship." The ship was on the US Treasury sanctions list.
- The Strait of Hormuz is closed again: On Saturday, the Iranian Navy announced via VHF radio to all ships: "Due to the US failure to fulfill its commitment in the negotiations, the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed. No ships are allowed to pass." Sources speaking to Reuters reported that Revolutionary Guard boats opened fire on two commercial vessels between Keshm and Larak, and the ships turned back.
- Have the talks collapsed? Trump announced that his special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner would travel to Islamabad on Monday, with Vice President JD Vance leading the delegation. However, Iran's official news agency IRNA announced that they would not participate in the second round of talks, citing "excessive demands, constant changes of position, and the naval blockade violating the ceasefire." The Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister stated that "no date has been set for the next round."
- Ceasefire expires: The two-week ceasefire declared between the US and Iran expires on Tuesday, April 22. Trump said that if there is no deal, he will "start bombing energy infrastructure and bridges in Iran."
2. 🕵️ Why is the Strait of Hormuz so critical?
Approximately 20% of the world's offshore oil and a similar percentage of LNG pass through the strait each year.
According to Reuters, hundreds of ships and approximately 20,000 seafarers are currently stranded in the Gulf.
Iran has been closing the strait intermittently since February 28. The US launched a naval blockade of Iranian ports on April 13.
3. 🧐 Oil and pump price front
Prices: Brent traded at $102.23 and WTI at $103.88 on Monday morning. Brent has risen 36% since early March.
What do the banks say?
Goldman Sachs: Raised its 2026 average from $77 to $85, expecting the Hormuz disruption to continue.
Morgan Stanley: Forecasts $110 Brent for Q2 and $100 for Q3, saying the recovery will take months.
BofA and Standard Chartered also raised their estimates to $77.5 and $85.5 respectively.
Gasoline in the US: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, "I am optimistic about a return to $3/gallon between June 20 and September 20."
Tax cut in Canada: Prime Minister Mark Carney suspended the federal fuel tax from April 20 to September 7. This means a 10-cent per liter reduction for gasoline and a 4-cent reduction for diesel.
4. 🤔Three risks for the global economy
Supply shock: If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the flow of 17-18 million barrels of oil per day will be disrupted. This will open up an already tight market.
Inflation reversal: Headline inflation in the US and Europe had fallen in March. Oil above $100 could delay central bank interest rate cut plans.
Supply chain: Container ships stranded in the Gulf are pushing Asia-Europe freight rates upward again.
5. 🧐 How did the crypto market react?
Bitcoin fell from $78,000 to $76,000 on news of the Strait of Hormuz being closed again, with $762 million in liquidations in 24 hours.
On Friday, it had dropped below $75,000 in hopes of peace, attempting to close the week in positive territory for the third time.
Ethereum is fluctuating around $2,300. Investors are testing the "safe haven" narrative: In Q1 2020, BTC rose 10% in a week during the Hormuz tensions.
6. Calendar to Watch This Week
Monday: US delegation in Islamabad, Iranian participation uncertain
Tuesday: Official end of ceasefire
Tuesday-Thursday: 15% of S&P 500 companies release earnings – energy costs the main theme.
This crisis has brought the question of "negotiations or the navy?" back to the forefront. The seizure of TOUSKA shows the US's willingness to implement its sanctions list on the ground. Iran, on the other hand, is holding the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining chip and saying, "we will not talk until the blockade is lifted."
The equation for the markets is simple: If the Strait opens, oil prices will ease, and risk appetite will return. If it remains closed, Brent prices above $100 will become permanent, gasoline prices will not fall in the summer, and central banks will adopt a wait-and-see approach.
The news flow changes hourly. When taking positions, look not at a single Truth Social message, but at shipping traffic data, the Brent futures curve, and official confirmation from Islamabad.
This is not investment advice. DYOR
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✨The news flow over the weekend clearly indicates that global markets will begin the new week with significant uncertainty. Military moves from the Donald Trump administration, Iran's harsh responses, and developments in the Strait of Hormuz have created not only a regional crisis but also a breaking point that could shake global economic balances.
✨Military Tension and Diplomatic Impasse
The US announcement that it intervened against the Iranian-flagged cargo ship "TOUSKA" has escalated tensions to a new level. While Washington views this move as a violation of sanctions and an attempt to break the naval blockade, the messages from Tehran are much harsher:
Iran explicitly rejected a second round of peace talks, stating that "there will be no negotiations as long as the naval blockade continues."
✨This development shows that the diplomatic process, which had given positive signals just a few days ago, has been effectively suspended. The gap between Trump's statement that "we are very close to an agreement" and Iran's "lack of trust" approach is growing wider.
✨ The Strait of Hormuz is Being Tightened
The near-halt of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries approximately 20% of the world's oil supply, is the most critical development for the markets. If the claim of "zero tanker passages today" is true, this means a supply shock in the short term.
Past examples confirm this:
During the 2020 US-Iran tension, a similar increase in tension occurred, oil prices rose, and sharp movements were seen in risky assets.
✨ Oil and Inflation: A Chain Reaction
Oil prices are among the assets that react most quickly to such geopolitical crises. A disruption in the Strait of Hormuz:
Reduces global supply
Pushes Brent oil upwards
Re-increases inflationary pressure
🤔There is a striking contradiction here: The expectation of "$3 gasoline in the summer" from the US Treasury seriously clashes with the current geopolitical reality. If tensions escalate, this target may remain quite optimistic.
On the other hand, the steps taken by some leaders, such as Mark Carney, to reduce fuel taxes show that governments are beginning to take precautions against the impending energy shock.
✨Crypto and Markets: Has Risk Aversion Begun?
As of the weekend:
Bitcoin dropped below $75,000
Ethereum fell below $2,300
Normally, geopolitical risks can support Bitcoin as a "safe haven." However, the current decline shows that markets have not yet found direction and liquidity tightening is prominent.
Yet, historically, crypto assets can show strong recoveries after short-term sell-offs during major crises.
✨Second Front Risk
Israel's renewed military operation planning along the Gaza and Lebanon line increases the likelihood of the crisis escalating into a regional war.
This strengthens the following scenario:
Iran-US tension
Israel-Hezbollah axis
Gulf energy supply
All are at risk simultaneously.
Critical Week for Markets
Key headlines this week:
The fate of US-Iran talks
The possibility of the ceasefire ending
S&P 500 companies' earnings reports
Clarification of the de facto situation in the Strait of Hormuz
All these developments point to one theme: high volatility.
✨Is Uncertainty the New Normal?
Markets priced in the "possibility of peace" last week. However, news flow over the weekend shows the exact opposite.
If diplomacy is not quickly reactivated:
Sharp rise in oil prices
Selling pressure on global stock markets
Currency shock in emerging markets
Volatility in the crypto market
may become inevitable.
✨The next few days could be decisive not only for the markets but also for the global order. Because what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz is no longer just a regional crisis — it has become a risk affecting the heartbeat of the global economy.
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