April 22 Afternoon Bitcoin Outlook: News-Driven Rebound, Worrying Sustainability

Did they start pumping this morning? Judging by the current chart, the bulls’ strength is indeed relatively strong, but the head-and-shoulders top structure still remains intact and effective.

This round of upside is mainly driven by news; after the temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran and comments Trump released with positive momentum, the market rallied rapidly.

However, both sides will most likely still enter a long negotiation cycle afterward, making it difficult to reach a settlement in one go. The negotiation back-and-forth will continue for a while, and in the medium to long term, the news backdrop will remain bearish and under pressure.

There are only two possible paths for the subsequent price action: either surge up directly and then pull back to close the needle and fall, or consolidate and then make a small push higher to test the 78.5k pressure before topping out and pulling back.

But this point is near the prior high, where selling pressure is heavy, and combined with the head-and-shoulders top plus the double-top structure suppressing it, the market can hardly surge directly to 80k.

We still plan to go short—short around 78,300, with the first target at 76800#GatePreIPOs首发SpaceX