2024-06-13 14:41:18

1. Labor Market: Low Unemployment Rate and Strong Labor Market.

2. Inflation fell from 7% to 2.7%, but still below the 2% level, at a high level
3. Maintain current interest rates, maintain current tight monetary policy, balance supply and demand, and reduce inflation
4. GDP indicator: It is hoped that the GDP growth rate will be 2.1% this year, and 2% in 2024 and 2025.
5. In the labor market, the supply and demand situation has tended to balance.
6. In April and May, non-farm payrolls increased by 218,000, higher than expected. The median unemployment rate forecasted by SEP is 4.0% by the end of this year and 4.2% by the end of next year. The increase in non-farm positions is mainly related to immigration, but the high unemployment rate raises questions about the source of data from the Federal Reserve.
7. Inflation is still some way off from the 2% target. In April, the broad PCE was 2.7%, core PCE rose 2.8%, broad CPI was 3.3%, and core CPI was 3.4%. Despite recent favorable data, the SEP forecasts PCE to be 2.6% this year, 2.3% in 2025, and 2.0% in 2026.
8. The current interest rate is 5.5%-5.25%. The current economic situation is uncertain. In the previous meeting, Powell mentioned that the unemployment rate was 4% and inflation was 2%. The unemployment rate has reached the standard for interest rate cuts, but inflation has not, and there is still a long way to go to reach 2%, mainly due to housing rent.
9. At the end of this year, the interest rate is 5.1%. According to this statement, it may decrease by 25 basis points each time, possibly 1-2 times, reaching 4.1% at the end of 2025 and 3.1% at the end of 2026.
10. Inflation of less than 2% will not lead to a rate cut, excluding political factors, according to the data received by the Federal Reserve; if the current monetary policy poses risks to economic and price stability, and the economy is exceptionally weak, far below expectations, the Fed may adopt a more aggressive approach. In Powell's words, I am fully prepared to face the complex and changing market $BTC $ETH $SOL

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