The US dollar may be affected by June inflation data. If the core inflation rate rises by 0.2% or 0.3% on a month-on-month basis, the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates at the September meeting. This move will indicate that the core inflation rate has slowed down in the second quarter after an average pump of 0.4% on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the first quarter. This is the analysis of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group in a report.