Reprinted from: Mr. Kikawa Tomitaka

When writing this article, BTC was falling, and so were altcoins. Looking at the comments, I realize that many friends may feel uneasy. A month ago today, we experienced a similar market situation, with a pullback on the evening of November 23 and a gradual recovery on the evening of the 26th. BTC repeatedly hit new highs, and altcoins experienced a frenzy. However, a month later, most coins have returned to their prices from a month ago. At this time, the market's pessimism is spreading again, the bull has left, and this bull market has ended...
Did the bull leave? At the end of the article on the 18th, I wrote: There is really no need to be afraid, the bull is still here. At 23:26 on the 23rd, facing the current market trend, I will still say this: There is really no need to be afraid, the bull is really still here.
As an amateur KOL, there is a bit of psychological pressure after the number exceeds 10,000. It's not so much about being afraid of being proven wrong, but rather worrying that some of my judgments may affect the trading mindset of some novice friends. As for the trend of BTC, I personally think that the market has already clearly shown that it needs to continue shaking and washing chips from the daily stage and the candlestick pattern, in combination with the news, in order to clear out long positions. Don't think that if it falls below 100,000, it will go to 95,000. If it reaches 95,000, the subsequent pessimistic prediction will be 85,000, 77,000, 68,000...
This is the market sentiment that capital likes to see the most. They know that retail investors will not make clear and firm judgments on the direction. Maybe they will have it in the beginning, but when dealing with these ups and downs, they forget about it. So I always say, market sentiment is dual in nature. For those of us who trade, it is best not to follow the crowd, try to maintain independent thinking, and have the ability to make decisions for ourselves. Don't follow A's prediction of a decline, B's prediction of a rise, or C's prediction of no change. If you keep looking at the WX group, and if everyone in the group predicts a decline, then you will think that the market will decline next. If the group predicts a rise, then the market will go up next. This is not playing with coins, this is cultivating your neurotic tendencies of ups and downs, especially in the bullish market phase where news is overwhelming. Too many voices and opinions are not necessarily a good thing.
Whether writing an article or making a judgement, others can talk without any cost or consequence, but what is truly affected is the real money in your account! Analyzing market trends to make trading decisions is a threshold that you cannot avoid in the cryptocurrency circle. If you want to achieve good results through trading in the cryptocurrency circle, you must break through it. Avoiding or dodging it is futile. No one can help you except yourself, unless you have a grudge against money and are irresponsible with your own funds.
This dynamic always emphasizes some points, giving people fish is not as good as teaching people how to fish. Everyone enters the circle at different times, with different understanding abilities, different comprehensive factors such as position control, actual holding costs, and capital proportion, etc.
Certainly it will create different cognitive differences, and the direct result is that, facing the same market situation, everyone's returns are also different at this moment. I cannot give you the ability to judge correctly in every operation, but perhaps I can influence your courage to actively experience and learn.
After all, trading is not a one-time thing, and you won't only spend one day in the cryptocurrency circle. There are only two paths after entering this circle: most people will lose all their money and leave, while a small number of people will discover patterns and survival methods, accumulating wealth in this industry. If you really want to devote yourself to this industry, not as a speculation but as an investment, then look further ahead. Four years is not a cycle, eight years is.
Speaking of the market, the current market retracement is superficially due to Powell's hawkish remarks, but fundamentally because of the uncertainty about the number of rate cuts next year. Not only the cryptocurrency market, but also the three major US stock indexes have experienced different degrees of decline. In addition, due to the lack of market liquidity during the Christmas period in previous years, it is possible to continue to maintain a range-bound consolidation at this level, or even a retracement to test the support line at 88K. Do you remember the phenomenon mentioned earlier? In the past six months, there has been a drop at the end of each month and a slow rise at the beginning of the next month. Perhaps this time, it will continue, but in the second stage of the bull market, the magnitude of the rise and fall will be much larger.
The current market situation, BTC has not fallen below the EMA200 bull-bear dividing line, and the indicators on the weekly and monthly charts are relatively benign. It doesn't really have much impact for those old leeks who hold most of their spot low-priced chips and have relatively reasonable position ratios. Take myself as an example, I have lost more than 400,000 yuan in the past week, and the capital loss is from APE and SATS (two small positions bought in early December), but the other positions are still doing fine, still in floating profits. This is the benefit of finding reasonable entry points and holding low-priced chips. When you can roughly estimate the future endpoint, the amount of your account now is actually not important.
Unless you are currently making short-term profits or holding positions with leverage or borrowing money, you rushed into the market during the continuous rise in late November....
In the first few years when I started trading coins, I liked to read the news to interpret the market, believing that the market was influenced by the news. But now I have gradually realized that most of the market trends actually appear in conjunction with the news. As ordinary traders in the secondary market, we always understand the market's interpretation of the news only through the numbers on the market. What really determines the market trend is still the smart money and big capital behind it. News will not affect the market, but the market often affects the news. I don't know if you can understand this sentence. If you can figure it out, maybe in the future, when you are trading, your mentality will be relatively more relaxed.
Does news affect the market? Of course it does, but its impact is not decisive. Many times, we hear that a certain market has skyrocketed or plummeted due to a certain piece of news. This is actually the perspective of retail investors. If we only look at it from this perspective, we often end up losing money because by the time the news is released, the market has often already moved. In my opinion, the rise and fall of the market is not mainly determined by the news, but more depends on the stage the market is in.
How to judge the market phase? From the perspective of the Zhuang family, we must understand the three stages of absorption, relay adjustment, and distribution and shipment. In different market phases, news is always manipulated in a magical way. You must have heard of phrases like 'good news is all bad news' and 'bad news is always good news'. They are all words spoken by big capital! Can't you see through it? I won't go into further detail here. If you are smart, just experience a few market cycles, even if you don't buy or sell, use pen and paper to record your feelings. Perhaps you will figure out something.
So many of the previous dynamics tell you that reviewing is very important, and cultivating oneself is the most important.
It's late at night. Writing updates is actually quite exhausting. The New Year is coming soon, but business is just so-so, and there are a lot of miscellaneous matters because everyone is returning to poverty. I am also worrying about funds. Finally, let's simply reply to a few comments in a way that everyone likes here. It's just a personal opinion, not necessarily accurate, so please refer carefully.
1. Is the bull still there? It is, and next year we can expect BTC to reach around 150,000 and ETH to reach around 10,000.
2. When can we see it? BTC should be around April-May, after all, BTC broke new highs in this halving cycle and took the lead. ETH is hard to say, but historically the first quarter has always been good for the market.
3. What altcoins are worth looking at? There are too many altcoins, and it is impossible for all of them to flourish. If you seek stability, choose the old main chains and DIFI old coins that have already emerged. If you seek high returns, choose meme track, AI track, and RWA track new coins. The risks and returns above are directly proportional. The easiest way to distinguish is that even if the current price has retraced, the real-time price is still 200% higher than the price at the low point on November 6, which is the best option. An increase of 100% is still considered to have potential. If it is less than 50%, you need to think carefully. Unless the narrative theme is very popular, as for returning to the starting point, it's a bit mystical.
4. How to track sector rotation? The reason why sectors need to rotate and rise is because there is insufficient on-site funds. If there is more money than coins, they would have all risen early. So it's still best to reduce desires as much as possible, choose the leading track, select coins with a higher circulation rate, and try to listen to fewer stories and dream less.
5. What memes are promising? In this round of memes, SOL>ETH>BNB>BTC>other public chains are promising, but it is not recommended to invest heavily as the risks are really high. In the previous round, I generally didn't think the runner-up, such as SHIB, was good. It's not that it's bad, it's just that I think I can find better gains. Why waste money and time on it? When buying altcoins, you need to have a scumbag mentality and not talk too much about faith. People always have to pay for their own understanding.
6. Can you bottom out now? Don't always think about the bottom, no one can accurately tell you what the bottom is, it's reasonable to look at the market with a rearview mirror perspective. So at this stage, it mainly depends on yourself. Every pullback in a bull market is an opportunity for you to get on board. If you dare to take the plunge, then go for it. Being pragmatic will be more practical, while perfectionism will kill you.
7. Has the bull market really ended? Even if you take profits and exit now, no one will laugh at you. Making money is your own business, so you don't need to care about others' opinions. However, personally, if the bull market is over, how will institutions like China Construction Bank and Musk face the world and bet on the future of the United States? It might be better to believe in the overall market performance rather than focusing on cancer stocks that are far ahead.
8. What should I do if my current coins haven't broken even yet? It was always said to be a good theme! Many experts recommended it. Either continue to wait, or switch decisively, or give yourself a slap in the face, but don't hesitate anymore. For many currencies, it may really skyrocket for 1-3 days at some point next year, but can you escape? Will greed stop you from wanting to escape? Or how many other money-making opportunities have you missed because of this, you have to consider it yourself. If you don't understand, go and take a look at live cases like EOS and BCH.
9. At what price can XXX coin be acquired? If its current price continues to retract by 50%, can you still believe that it will rise to more than twice your entry price?
10. Will it continue to fall? How much will it fall? If I could answer you accurately, I wouldn't have to sit and write updates. The pullback of this round of altcoins also exceeded my prediction. Looking at it from a different perspective, the chips I bought at the beginning of December during the major pullback were not at the lowest price! Remember these words, market trends are a matter of probability, preparing for different scenarios is a personal matter, increasing or decreasing positions is a skill, and being fully invested is a matter of waiting to exit next year.
Okay, I'm tired. Goodnight. It should take about 10 more days of shaking before it's over. Hang in there!
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!