Is BTC suitable for Short or Long now?

The current situation in the BTC market is complex and cannot be simply determined whether it is suitable for shorting or going long. The following is a comprehensive analysis:

Technical analysis

According to the analysis of CoinWorld on the afternoon of January 10th, the 4-hour K-line of BTC recently showed a significant increase in price compared to 20:00:00 on January 9, 2025, but the trading volume has decreased, and the upward momentum has weakened. BOSS Wallet's analysis indicates that based on MACD analysis, the current market trend is not clear, but the histogram continues to be negative and gradually shortens, indicating an increase in bullish power; the KDJ indicator is neutral. The recent support level is at $89,958.0, and the resistance level is at $102,344.0.

Market sentiment and fund flow

The fear and greed index of cryptocurrency fell to the lowest point since October 14 due to the drop in BTC price on January 9, entering the "neutral" zone, and the market as a whole is relatively pessimistic. On January 8, the second largest capital outflow appeared in the US spot BTC exchange traded fund, with an outflow of nearly $570 million, which may put some pressure on the market and lead to further decline.

Macro policies and external environment

Market expectations of the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy in 2025, along with the recent rise in US Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar, have also hindered BTC from maintaining a price above $100,000. The US Department of Justice has been granted permission to sell $6.5 billion worth of BTC seized from the Silk Road, although no BTC has been sold yet, this news has caused the BTC price to drop below $92,000.

Institutional perspective

James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, said that the price of BTC could reach $80,000 to $150,000 by 2025, with a favorable regulatory environment in the United States being the main factor supporting the price. However, if Trump fails to fulfill his pro-cryptocurrency policies, the market may experience a correction. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, predicts that BTC will surpass $150,000 in the first half of the year and reach $185,000 in the fourth quarter, driven by adoption from institutions, businesses, and countries.