crypto world恐有大寒冬

1. The main factor influencing the price of Bitcoin is the risk appetite of the US stock market.
From a historical perspective, the composition of the coin price during the bull markets in 2014 and 2017 was completely different from the bull markets in 2021 and 2024. In 2014, ASICs led Bitcoin to gradually expand to larger retail investors beyond geeks, while in 2017, ICOs and so on made almost everyone familiar with Bitcoin. Participants in these two rounds are still retail investors.

The price of the currency is determined by two aspects: mining cost and market sentiment, both of which are based on the halving cycle specified in the Bitcoin whitepaper. According to the halving cycle chart, the impact of the newly added supply of bitcoin mining output on the circulating supply is enormous at the beginning of the halving. Moreover, this market is almost unaffected by other markets. However, everything has changed in 2021 and 2024.

In 2021 and 2024, the impact of halving on the circulation market has become smaller due to the increasing number of mined coins. Therefore, the halving event has less and less ability to affect prices through supply. At the same time, during this period, newcomers in the crypto world have transitioned from retail investors to Wall Street, which directly strengthens the correlation between Bitcoin prices and other financial assets.

By the end of 2024, the cost of mining one bitcoin is approximately $30,000, and the price of bitcoin is $100,000. After reaching $100,000, there is still the "vast expanse of the universe." The portion above $30,000 is almost entirely due to the increase in risk appetite caused by the growth of the US stock market (AI speculation, interest rate cut expectations, Trump's trade, etc.), which can be confirmed by the correlation between Nasdaq and Bitcoin.

The price of the currency has gone from the white paper and community decisions of 14-17 to the basic decisions made by Wall Street in 21-21. This change not only marks the likely breaking of the four-year bull market cycle, but also suggests that Bitcoin is likely to face major setbacks in the over-invested American AI, teetering US treasuries, and Wall Street preparing to retaliate against Trump under pressure, as well as the US stock market under pressure.

The bottleneck of blockchain technology itself is difficult to break through.
As a technology, blockchain not only has halving in each bull market cycle, but also the development of technology is an important direction of market sentiment. 2014 is ASIC, 2017 is ICO, 2021 is a technological outbreak (DeFi, NFT, GameFi, Filecoin, etc.). What about 2024? Inscriptions or AI?

Rune has nothing to say. But depin, like file, is a pseudo-demand. A truly stable and profitable demand cannot tolerate such a large fluctuation in computing power from bull to bear. Most importantly, the essence of blockchain is to sacrifice 'cost' for 'security', and such a proportion of sacrifice can be considered innovative in the financial aspect, but what about storage and AI? Can you imagine checking the generated results 20 times before sending them to the user?

In terms of the development of technology, the development of blockchain technology has encountered significant bottlenecks. The large loss of talents in this industry in the past two years also serves as evidence of this fact. Another piece of evidence is that in the previous cycle, the rise was driven by momentum every time the market momentum was exhausted, and it would quickly pull back. What about this round? There is only momentum, and almost no technology.

Whether it's the lackluster technology or the market's imitation of the risk appetite for US stocks, it indicates that this round of Bitcoin bull market lacks a stable foundation and may collapse at any time.

Perhaps the no rate cut in December and Trump's inauguration are turning points.

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