Has the Bull Market in 2025 ended? Don't be fooled by market sentiment!

🔥 Bitcoin breaks through $100,000, the market is in a frenzy, but are you also starting to doubt: Has the bull market reached its peak?
💡 Some are cashing out at high levels, some are still adding positions, some are calling the top is here, some are calling the bull run has just begun... So, has this wave of the Bull Market in 2025 really come to an end? Or is it just another round of fluctuations?

Today, we deeply analyze whether the Bull Market of 2025 is really over from the perspectives of data, market logic, and historical cycles!

📊 1. Has the Bull Market in 2025 really ended? Let's look at the data!

📌 If you want to determine whether the Bull Market is over, you can't rely on feelings, but on key data indicators:

✅ 1. Institutional Positions VS Retail Sentiment
• The inflow of institutional funds is a key reference for whether the Bull Market is ending.
• Currently, the funds of BTC spot ETF are still flowing in, and institutions such as Grayscale and BlackRock are still increasing their holdings of BTC and ETH.
• Looking at the retail market, the current market sentiment is quite FOMO, and there is a certain speculative bubble, but it has not reached the level of madness seen at the top of the Bull Markets in 2017 and 2021.

📢 If institutions are still increasing their holdings and retail investors have not gone completely crazy, the market probably still has room to rise!

✅ 2. Technical Indicators: Has the Bull Market Cycle Peak Not Arrived?
• Referring to the historical Bull Market cycles, Bitcoin typically reaches a cycle peak 12-18 months after halving.
• In April 2024, Bitcoin will undergo its quadrennial halving. According to historical patterns, the peak of the true Bull Market is most likely to occur in Q3-Q4 of 2025.
• Currently we may only be in the middle of a bull run, not at the top.

📢 If historical cycles are still valid, the market in 2025 may reach even higher levels!

✅ 3. Macro Environment: Interest Rate Policy vs. Fund Flows
• The Fed may enter an interest rate cut cycle by the end of 2024 or the beginning of 2025, and liquidity will recover, which is positive for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
• The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell, and funds may continue to flow into the crypto market.
• The uncertainty of the global economy makes decentralized assets such as BTC still have hedging value.

📢 If the global market remains uncertain, BTC, as the "digital gold", may still become a safe haven for capital.

🔥 2. What are the current market risks? Beware of short-term adjustments!

📌 Although the bull run may not be over yet, there are still certain risks in the short term market. Investors need to pay attention to the following points:

✅ 1. Overleveraging & High-risk Speculation
• In the current market, Meme coins and altcoins are skyrocketing, indicating an increase in market speculation and an increase in short-term pullback risks.
• If the leverage ratio is too high, the market may experience a short-term phenomenon of "long kills long", leading to a deep adjustment.

📢 In the short term, if there is a large-scale margin liquidation event in the market, it may experience severe volatility, but this does not mean the Bull Market is over.

✅ 2. Regulatory Uncertainty
• The US SEC, the European Union and other government agencies are still intensifying their regulation of the cryptocurrency market, and compliance issues remain an important challenge for the industry.
• If there are new regulatory policies, such as strict control over stablecoins and decentralized exchanges (DEX), it may have a short-term impact on market sentiment.

📢 Short-term regulatory risks should not be ignored, but in the long run, compliance helps institutional funds enter the market, which is not entirely bearish.

✅ 3. Has "smart money" started to withdraw?
• If in the coming months, a large number of institutions start to sell BTC on a large scale while retail investors are still chasing higher prices, then the market may really be entering the tail end of a Bull Market.
• You can pay attention to on-chain data to observe whether long-term holders (HODLers) have started selling BTC, which is an important indicator to judge whether the Bull Market is coming to an end.

📢 If institutions start to cash out on a large scale, it may mean that the Bull Market has entered the second half!

⚡ 3. Future trend prediction: Will there be higher points in 2025?

📌 Based on the current data, the Bull Market is likely not completely over, but the market rhythm may change.

✅ 1. Bitcoin: New highs are still expected
• If historical cycles are effective, BTC may see a new high in Q3-Q4 of 2025.
• Currently, BTC has surpassed $100,000. If funds continue to flow in, the next phase may reach the range of $120,000 - $150,000.

✅ 2. Ethereum & Layer2 track: Increased attention to funding
• Ethereum will still be one of the mainstream in the market in 2025, especially the Layer2 and AI related tracks will attract more fund inflow.
• ETH ETF may become the next market catalyst, and if approved, it may further drive up ETH.

✅ 3. Meme Coins, AI Track: Short-term speculation risks increase
• Recently, Meme coins and AI tokens have skyrocketed, with strong FOMO sentiment in the market. However, these types of assets usually experience a sharp correction in the later stages of a Bull Market.
• If the Bull Market continues, funds may still circulate in high-risk assets, but caution is needed against the risk of a high-level pullback.

📢 Short-term hotspots can be participated in, but risk control should be noted to avoid heavy positions in high-risk assets!

📢 Conclusion: The bull market in 2025 may not have ended, but the market rhythm will change!

🎯 1. From the perspective of institutional positions, technical indicators, and macro environment, the Bull Market may not have reached its peak yet, and BTC may have higher targets.
🎯 2. However, the short-term market may face fluctuations, factors such as excessive leverage, regulatory uncertainty, institutional fund flows, etc. may affect market trends.
🎯 3. For ordinary investors, it is recommended to focus on long-term value assets (BTC, ETH) and to participate cautiously in high-risk speculative assets (Meme coins, altcoins).

📢 How do you see it? Has the Bull Market in 2025 really ended?

🔥 How high do you think BTC can rise? Has the market reached its peak?
💬 Will you continue to hold or consider gradually cashing out? Welcome to discuss!

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