Will BTC usher in a new round of big pump? Inflation data may be the key variable!

📌 CPI data is about to be released, and the market is holding its breath.

According to Odaily Star Daily, Markus Thielen of 10x Research predicts that the market generally expects the CPI inflation rate announced by the U.S. Bureau of Statistics on February 12 to increase by 2.9% year-on-year. However, he pointed out that the U.S. Truflation inflation index (a real-time inflation tracking indicator) has dropped from 3.0% to 2.1%, indicating that inflation may be easing faster than market expectations.

Key points:
• If CPI is lower than market expectations (i.e. 2.7% or 2.8%), the market may see a stronger rebound in risk assets, including Bitcoin.
• The price of BTC may rise by another $10,000, hitting $105,491, only 3.5% lower than the historical high of $109,000 on January 20th.

Does this mean that a new round of big pump for Bitcoin is coming? Or is it another case of 'excessive optimism' in the market? Let's analyze further.

📊 Why is CPI data so important?

🔹 1. CPI determines the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve

CPI (Consumer Price Index) is a key indicator of measuring inflation, which directly affects whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates.
• CPI higher than expected 👉 Indicates that inflation remains stubborn, the Fed may maintain high interest rates, and market sentiment is pessimistic.
• CPI lower than expected 👉 Indicates increased downward pressure on inflation, the Federal Reserve may relax its policy faster, and market sentiment is optimistic.

This is crucial for Bitcoin, as Bitcoin is highly dependent on global liquidity, and the expectation of interest rate cuts will drive funds into the crypto market.

🔹 2. Why is the Truflation index lower than CPI?

Truflation is a real-time inflation tracking tool based on blockchain, which reflects market price changes faster than CPI.

Currently, Truflation data is only 2.1%, while the market expects CPI to be at 2.9%, which means that the official CPI may be lower than the market expectation, undoubtedly a bullish signal.

If inflation unexpectedly cools down after the CPI data is released, the Fed may shift to a loose policy ahead of schedule, and BTC will be one of the biggest beneficiaries.

🚀 How will Bitcoin move next? Two key factors

The market is discussing: if the CPI is less than 2.9%, will BTC break through the new high? We look at it from both technical and financial perspectives.

✅ 1. Technical analysis: Is breaking $100,000 just a matter of time?
• Over the past 3 months, Bitcoin has surged from $73,800 to $109,000, a gain of over 47%.
• Currently pulling back to the $95,000 - $98,000 range, but if the CPI is lower than expected, it may push BTC to retest the $105,000 resistance level.
• Once broken, reaching a new historical high of $109,000 is not difficult.

✅ 2. Capital: ETF funds are still flowing in at an accelerating pace
• After the BTC ETF is approved in January 2024, billions of dollars flow into BTC every day, driving up the price.
• If CPI is below 2.9%, the market's expectation for interest rate cuts will increase, and ETFs may attract more buying interest, increasing the probability of a further rise in BTC.

Conclusion: If CPI is below 2.9%, BTC may experience another 10,000 US dollars pump in the short term, aiming directly at the range of 105,000 - 110,000 US dollars.

⚠️ However, risks still exist! Three potential variables

Although the market is bullish, these three factors may still bring unexpected risks.

❌ 1. If CPI is higher than 2.9%, market panic selling

If CPI unexpectedly rises, it means inflation rebound, the Fed may continue to maintain high interest rates, market sentiment will turn to safe-haven, and BTC may experience a big pump in the short term.

❌ 2. BTC is at a temporary high, with significant short-term volatility

Bitcoin has been rising for several months in a row, entering the overbought zone. In the short term, it may face profit-taking, once market funds flow out, it may usher in a big pump.

❌ 3. Macro policy sudden change

The Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized that inflation control remains a top priority. If the CPI is below 2.9% but not low enough, the market may reassess the interest rate cut timetable, which could lead to short-term uncertainty.

📢 What's your opinion? Will BTC pump again?

The CPI data on February 12 may become a key variable for BTC to break through $105,000.

Do you think Bitcoin can break through its historical high? Or will it fluctuate around $100,000? How do you personally position yourself?

Welcome to discuss in the comment section! Remember to follow me, to keep you informed of the market trends for the first time 🚀#我要上精选