#ARKM After Bitcoin completed its halving in 2016, it took about 525 days to reach its price peak; after the halving in 2020, it took approximately 546 days to climb to its highest point. As of now, after the halving in 2024, it seems to have approached its price peak in just about 280 days. There is a prevailing view in the current market that with the increasing number of Bitcoin halvings, the impact of each halving on the market will gradually diminish. This phenomenon is similar to the changes in functions in calculus, where values decrease progressively from large to small, until the impact becomes negligible. However, this is more of a long-term trend prediction for the future; regarding the current market situation, we have not yet reached this extent. Therefore, the fact that it touched the price peak in less than 300 days after the halving clearly does not conform to the conventional logic of market development. Thus, we might infer that in the future Bitcoin market, the cycles of bull and bear transitions may no longer follow the previous pattern of every 4 years; the once deeply ingrained market perception of "halving equals bull run" will gradually become blurred. The correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks will become increasingly tight, and its market performance is likely to be significantly influenced by fluctuations in U.S. stocks, during which there may also be some small-scale bear market conditions. But will these bear markets evolve into deep bear markets? The greater possibility is that they are merely seemingly perilous bear traps.

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Special note! Tonight at 20:30, the key data on initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending March 15 is about to be released. The previous value was 220,000, and the market generally expects this time to reach 224,000. The importance rating of this data in the economic field is as high as ★★★★☆, and it has long been a core barometer for measuring the economic situation. Any slight change in it could trigger a series of chain reactions, having a broad and profound impact on various aspects of the financial market. Investors are already on high alert, speculating on whether this data release will bring surprises beyond expectations or trigger unexpected market fluctuations, which is truly worth watching. Early this morning, after a meeting held by Federal Reserve Vice Chair Powell, Bitcoin's price quickly rebounded from the $83,500 line to $87,500. Today, Bitcoin is generally in a high-level adjustment state, and the current price is under pressure, testing the $85,000 level, which is an extremely critical support and resistance turning point recently. Analyzing the hourly chart, there is still a possibility for Bitcoin's price to continue to decline, with a key focus on the support strength at the lower Bollinger Band around $84,500. So, after tonight's initial jobless claims data is released, will the Bitcoin market welcome a new situation? Let's wait for the market to provide an answer.