# 预测市场

The security issues of prediction markets are beginning to surface. The malicious code incident involving the Polymarket copycat bot on GitHub is worth noting—developers embedded private key theft logic into the code, so once users run the program, the wallet private key in the .env file will be automatically read. Even more concerning is that the author repeatedly modified commits to hide malicious packages, indicating this is not a simple mistake but a deliberate act.
From an on-chain perspective, the chain reaction of such incidents may include: rapid outflow of funds from affected addresse

#预测市场 The core value of prediction markets lies in their economic incentive mechanism—real money betting forces participants to be responsible for their opinions, which is fundamentally different from the zero-cost expression on social media. Looking at the data on Polymarket makes this very clear: Elon Musk claimed that a civil war in the UK is "inevitable," yet the market only assigns a 3% probability. This 3% is also considered too high by Vitalik, as some irrational bettors have inflated the number.
Looking at Bitcoin forecasts— the probability of reaching $100,000 again within the year h

#预测市场 Polymarket migrates from Polygon to a self-built L2, and this move is worth paying attention to. The Polygon outage on December 18 directly affected the platform's operations, and it now appears to be the trigger point.
Several signals worth tracking:
**On-chain fund transfer signals** — How tokens and liquidity move to the new L2 will leave obvious on-chain traces. Large cross-chain bridge transactions during migration can be tracked through these contract operations to gauge the scale of funds.
**The practical significance of infrastructure improvement** — Abandoning third-party provi

#预测市场 Seeing the probability of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 on Polymarket drop from an optimistic expectation to 10%, my mind flashes back to the end of the 2017 bull run. Back then, everyone was talking about $50,000, $100,000, or even more outrageous figures, and market sentiment was pushed to the extreme—until reality delivered a long bear market that gave everyone a slap in the face.
Today’s scene feels somewhat familiar. Predicting a 32% chance of $95,000 and an 18% chance of dropping below $80,000—what does this data reflect? It indicates that market participants’ expectations are shiftin

#预测市场 Seeing the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 on Polymarket drop to 10%, a familiar thought crosses my mind. The number itself isn't the key; what's important is what it reflects about market sentiment—the turning point from euphoria to caution.
I've seen a similar scene in 2017. Back then, optimistic predictions about Bitcoin breaking through were everywhere on various forecasting platforms, with probabilities often above 70%. But you know what? True opportunities often arise when everyone starts to lower their expectations. It's not that low expectations necessarily lead to a re

#预测市场 V God's recent viewpoint indeed hit my sore spot. Every day scrolling through social media, I see all kinds of sensational predictions—"某某币 will skyrocket" "The market is going to crash"—sounding as if they were true, but people don't have to take responsibility for these statements.
In contrast, prediction markets are different. Taking the English Civil War as an example, Elon Musk posted that it was "inevitable," but the data on Polymarket slapped that idea hard—only a 3% probability. Real money is on the line, and lying means losing money, which forces genuine judgments.
It's like in

#预测市场 After reading Vitalik's latest insights on prediction markets, I feel deeply inspired. He’s absolutely right — prediction markets are like adding a "truth verifier" to social media.
Imagine every time we come across a catastrophic prediction, we check the actual odds on Polymarket. When we see those shocking claims only have a 3% chance of being true in the prediction market, we feel much more at ease. This isn’t just statistical data; it’s real money at stake — liars are directly punished by the market, and this economic incentive is more effective than any fact-checking.
This is the t

#预测市场 Recently saw Vitalik's discussion on prediction markets, very interesting—he calls prediction markets the "antidote" to social media, and the logic is really about the binding power of real money.
This made me think that the essence of copy trading is the same. Traders on social media hype wildly, but what truly reflects their strength are position records, stop-loss executions, and risk management—all of which have economic costs. The cost of lying is too high.
On Polymarket, the probability of BTC breaking 100,000 this year is only 10%, and 95,000 is just 32%, yet the crypto community

The interesting thing about prediction markets is that—they are essentially a game of probabilities, and 10x leverage amplifies both risk and reward. Space's approach on Solana is basically betting on whether liquidity issues can be solved through CLOB and Maker zero fees.
From a copy-trading perspective, prediction markets are fundamentally different from futures. Futures are driven by technology, while prediction markets are driven by information. You need to find traders with exceptional insights into real-world events—they're not just looking at K-line charts, but predicting the probabilit

#预测市场 Seeing the news about Kalshi and BNB Chain's partnership, I was reminded of a recent conversation with a friend. She’s very interested in prediction markets and thinks they are a good opportunity for rapid value appreciation. I asked her a question: If you put your living expenses into predictions and lose, what then?
She fell silent.
Prediction markets indeed offer a new way to participate, especially now that cross-chain integration makes operations more convenient—using BNB and stablecoins on BSC to participate directly, eliminating complicated bridging steps. But behind the convenie