The first non-farm payroll data of 2026 has just been released, and the market is not as optimistic as expected.

**The Real Picture of the Data**

New job additions were only 50,000, well below the expected 70,000. What's more painful is that data from the previous two months were significantly revised downward, with October even corrected to a negative growth of -173,000. Unemployment rate, however, unexpectedly declined to 4.4% (previous: 4.6%), hitting the lowest level since September last year. Hourly wages grew 0.3% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year.

What does this data signal? Employment growth has basically stalled, while unemployment rate is declining—the truth behind this is that labor force participation rate is falling. In other words, it's not that the market needs people, but rather that some people are choosing to exit the labor force.

**What the Federal Reserve Thinks**

Despite weak employment data, given that wages are still growing and unemployment is declining, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged at the end of January is extremely high. The dollar index is fluctuating in the 98-99 range, and 10-year US Treasury yields have rebounded to 4.2%. The market's stance is clear—we haven't reached the point where "emergency rescue" is needed.

**Crypto Market Reaction**

Following the data release, BTC quickly stabilized above the $90,000 level. As long as it's not an extreme recession signal like a spike in unemployment, the market tends to interpret it as "a reason for moderate rate cuts." The logic is simple: eased recession expectations = possible liquidity loosening = support for risk assets. From this perspective, the current data environment is actually relatively favorable for the crypto market.