灰度最新報告指出，比特幣與軟體科技股相關性高達 0.73，短期內更像高風險成長資產，而非避險工具。
（前情提要：比特幣收復7萬美元失地，整理那些分析師認為背後反彈的脆弱邏輯 ）
（背景補充：Michael Saylor「我們不會賣」：Strategy浮虧65億鎂仍堅持永遠買入比特幣 ）
灰度（Grayscale）研究主管 Zach Pandl 於今（11）日發布報告指出，比特幣正處於「角色演變」的關鍵時期。數據顯示，比特幣與黃金的聯動性已降至低點，反而與軟體科技 ETF（IGV）的 30 天滾動相關係數高達 0.73，顯示其市場行為更接近高風險成長型資產。
當黃金價格挑戰每金衡盎司 5,000 美元的歷史新高時，比特幣卻持續隨美股科技板塊震盪。Zach Pandl 表示：
期望比特幣在如此短時間內取代黃金是不現實的。
灰度報告進一步分析，比特幣與科技股的高度連動，主要源自 ETF 活動的普及。隨著機構資金透過 ETF 大量進入比特幣市場，這項資產與傳統金融體系的關係日益緊密。
當宏觀經濟風險升溫時，機構往往優先拋售比特幣等高波動資產，而非將其視為避風港。
AI 衝擊波及比特幣？
有分析認為，市場將比特幣視為未來數位經濟的底層成長資產，因此當人工智慧（AI）技術對傳統軟體服務業形成衝擊時，比特幣也難以獨善其身。這解釋了為何比特幣會與承受 AI 競爭壓力的軟體科技股同步承壓。
不過灰度認為這種現象並非比特幣作為價值儲存手段的失敗，而是其融入傳統金融體系後的必然演化階段。報告指出，黃金擁有數千年的貨幣地位，直到 1970 年代初仍是國際貨幣體系的支柱。相比之下，僅有 17 年歷史的比特幣目前正處於「磨合演進期」。
總的來說，灰度對比特幣的長期前景仍持樂觀態度。報告認為，隨著全球經濟持續數位化與代幣化發展，比特幣仍將朝長期價值儲存手段的方向演進。但投資者需認清，在這個過渡階段，比特幣的市場表現或將更接近高風險成長型資產，而非傳統避險工具。
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