比特幣一度失守 6.3 萬美元!觸底時機到了沒?要觀察「這指標」

受川普祭出 15% 全球關稅、 AI 顛覆性擔憂恐慌擴散的雙重夾擊,全球投資人避險情緒急速升溫。比特幣今(24)日延續前一晚的疲軟走勢,一度跌破 6.3 萬美元大關,回落至 2 月 6 日以來的最低水平。 加密貨幣交易所 Kraken 成長副總裁 Matt Howells-Barby 表示:「如同美股的慘況,比特幣今天也出現了劇烈回檔。主因仍是關稅不確定性再度浮現,彷彿 2025 年 4 月的劇本重演。此外,地緣政治緊張局勢持續升溫,短期內恐也利空比特幣。」 他補充說,6 萬美元是多方目前緊盯的關鍵支撐位,「一旦這個價位失守,比特幣很可能會進一步下探 5 萬美元中低段區間」。 回顧周一美股盤勢,在最高法院擋下原先的關稅政策後,川普不僅未見退縮,反而強硬宣布將對他國進口商品課徵的臨時性關稅,從上周五喊出的 10% 一口氣調升至 15%,導致美股應聲重挫。與此同時,資金也加速逃離那些可能會在「AI 革命」中居於劣勢的企業股票,使整體風險資產承壓。 從技術面與歷史經驗來看,比特幣恐怕還得經歷一段向下尋底的陣痛期。 以往的數據一再顯示,比特幣的真正大底,通常要等到 50 周移動平均線(MA)向下摜破 100 周移動平均線時才會浮現。這個在技術分析中被稱為「死亡交叉」的指標,曾在 2018 年、 2022 年的熊市中出現,並幾乎精準對應到比特幣最終的探底位置。 然而,以目前狀況來看,50 周均線亦然高高懸掛在 100 周均線之上,距離出現「死亡交叉」仍有一段距離。換言之,在兩條均線正式走向「死亡交叉」、引爆「投降式拋售」之前,比特幣可能會下探 5 萬美元甚至更低的深淵。 這種技術型態乍看之下或許有些違背直覺:50 周均線跌破 100 周均線,理應代表動能進一步衰竭,怎麼會是「觸底」呢? 這其實完美呼應了移動平均線作為「落後指標」的特性。均線的交叉往往是「確認」已經發生的趨勢,而非「預測」未來的走向。因此,在比特幣的歷史中,當盤面出現「死亡交叉」時,市場往往已經跌無可跌,反而成為熊市落幕的最終印記。

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