Galaxy: Quantum Computing Poses Real Threat to Bitcoin But Not an Urgent Crisis, Approximately 7 Million BTC in Long-Term Exposure

Alex Thorn, research director at Galaxy Digital, points out that quantum computing poses a threat to Bitcoin, but it is not imminent, and investors should not panic.

Approximately 7 million BTC are in long-term risk, but current quantum computing capabilities cannot crack it, and developers have proposed multiple countermeasures.

According to Gate News on March 19, Alex Thorn, research director at Galaxy Digital, stated that while the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin is real, it does not currently constitute an imminent crisis, and investors should not mistake this long-term technological challenge as a reason to immediately abandon Bitcoin.

Thorn points out that current risks are limited to specific addresses with exposed public keys on-chain, including address reuse, addresses held by certain custodial institutions, and assets in legacy address formats.

Analysis by security firm Project Eleven shows that approximately 7 million BTC (valued at approximately $470 billion at recent prices) are in such a "long-term exposure" state, but remain secure under current quantum computing capabilities.

Regarding countermeasures, developers have been advancing multiple solutions, including introducing new address types based on post-quantum cryptography, an "hourglass" mechanism that restricts spending rights from addresses with permanently exposed public keys, and a phased upgrade path that fundamentally reduces the broadcasting of public keys in transactions.