What are the characteristics of Bitcoin bear market bottoms?

Why I believe the 6-7 million dollar level is not the bottom is simple: Bitcoin's bottom won't be a sharp V, but rather a sideways consolidation range.

2015 Bear Market Bottom
Figure 1

2018 Bear Market Bottom
Figure 2

2022 Bear Market Bottom
Figure 3

Looking back at previous cycles, we discover striking similarities.

In the late stages of bear markets, there's often a final crash that breaks through everyone's psychological defense line. After that, the downward momentum weakens, the market enters consolidation, followed by a rally wave that ends the bear market and starts a bull market. Every bear market bottom follows this pattern.

Actually, this is no coincidence - it's still the 4-year cycle at work.

So there's no rush to bottom fish. The lowest point of a bear market is most likely within a consolidation range at the bottom, which is an arc bottom or U-shaped bottom. Building a base requires time.

If you're unsure about bottom fishing, wait until after a period of consolidation, then enter when the right side starts to rally - that's a clear bottom signal.

How to define bull and bear markets?

Falls for a week, rises back in three days = Bull market
Rises for a week, drops in one day = Bear market

So whether we're in a bull or bear market now, everyone has a clear picture #创作者冲榜