行情急转直下。在周五强劲的风险偏好反弹后，加密货币价格在12月伊始便遭遇重挫，BTC在亚洲早盘交投清淡时段再度因止损盘驱动，跌破了8.7万美元。
虽然很难归咎于单一诱因，但在10–11月的市场清洗后，整体风险偏好依然脆弱，且过去几个交易时段浮现的一系列负面头条加剧了跌势。又一个OG协议的DeFi被黑（Yearn staking），一个DEX终端因市场环境艰难而放弃了备受期待的启动（Terminal Finance），OG Arthur Hayes公开”唱衰”近期的Monad ICO（暗示有99%下跌空间），标普将USDT评级下调至”弱”（资讯披露不足），以及中国央行重申对加密货币交易和稳定币的谨慎立场 — — 综合来看，我们有理由认为，在进一步通知之前，我们仍坚定地处于熊市领域。
在股市方面，标普500指数上周上涨3.7%，由半导体板块（+5.4%）和零售板块（+4.7%）领涨，零售宠儿股尽管整体零售交易量下降，但仍实现了强劲的周度反弹。
此外，黑色星期五销售的初步迹象表明，我们再次创下纪录，线上销售额达到近120亿美元（同比增长9%）的历史新高，而网路星期一预计将带来另外140亿美元的收入。截至目前，美国消费似乎依然强劲。
除了假日销售，本周经济日程也相当繁忙，将有ISM、ADP、初请失业金人数、PMI和密西根大学消费者信心指数等资料出炉。尽管市场噪音不断，但自2022年以来，PMI指数一直在50–55的健康扩张区间内缓慢攀升，而亚特兰大联储的GDPNow模型继续预测经济增长率将高于华尔街预期，显示经济基本面依然良好。
今年剩余时间内最重要的经济资料日期将在接下来两周：12月10日的FOMC会议，随后是推迟至12月16日发布的非农就业资料和12月18日的CPI资料。此外，值得注意的是，从现在到FOMC会议日期之间，基本上没有一级经济资料发布，因此市场对美联储降息近乎100%的预期已基本被消化（因美联储通常不倾向于让市场预期意外落空），焦点将放在对2026年政策路径的指引语言上，而非利率决定本身。
具体而言，我们将关注美联储如何评论其对通胀压力消退的信心增强，以相对于劳动力市场疲软和市场状况收紧来证明”鸽派降息”的合理性，反之亦然。会议纪要中”有多少”与会者倾向于维持利率不变作为异议，也将受到审视，尤其是在尚未发布的NFP和CPI报告背景下。同时，鲍威尔在问答环节如何回应关于通胀缺口与失业缺口的问题也值得关注。随著会议临近，我们将对美联储会议进行更详细的解读。
祝你好运，交易顺利！
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