#加密市场上涨

Bounce or Reversal? Validating Support Level Effectiveness

The current market rally is more inclined to be an oversold bounce rather than a trend reversal. From a technical perspective, while Bitcoin has recovered the $72,000 level after breaking below key moving averages, the daily timeframe remains suppressed by the 50-day MA ($72,000), and trading volume has not expanded significantly with the price increase, indicating insufficient upward momentum. Although on-chain data shows whale accounts exhibiting accumulation signals during the decline, forming relatively strong short-term support in the $70,000-$69,500 range, it will be difficult for the market to directly enter a reversal trend before the macro uncertainty event of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting unfolds.

📈 Strategy Evolution: Responding in a Ranging Market

Combining recent developments, this week's Fed decision is the biggest uncertainty factor. Before macro risks materialize, the probability of a trending one-sided move is low, and we expect prices to continue oscillating within a range.

1. Short-term Strategy (High Selling, Low Buying):
Given that the 4-hour RSI is in a neutral-to-weak zone (around 41) and MACD shows a death cross, avoid chasing highs in the short term. If the price rebounds to the $71,500-$72,000 resistance zone (which is also the 50-day MA resistance level), consider light short positions with stop loss above $72,500. If the price pulls back to the strong support zone of $68,500-$69,500 and shows stabilization signals, this presents an opportunity to establish short-term long positions.

2. Risk Management:
This week, pay close attention to the Fed's FOMC decision statement on Wednesday. If the decision leans hawkish (dot plot shows rate hike expectations), be vigilant about the risk of risk assets re-testing support levels; conversely, if the decision is dovish, there is potential to break through the consolidation range.