Fitch : Prévision de deux baisses de taux par la Réserve fédérale au premier semestre, le taux de chômage pourrait rester stable à 4,6% cette année

Odaily planet daily news: Fitch has raised its US GDP growth estimate for 2025 and growth forecast for 2026. The adjustment was made after incorporating economic data that was delayed due to a government shutdown at the end of last year. Fitch currently forecasts 2025 GDP growth of 2.1%, higher than the 1.8% predicted in its December 2025 Global Economic Outlook (GEO). Meanwhile, it raised the 2026 growth forecast from 1.9% in the previous report to 2.0%. Given incomplete October data, recent CPI inflation trends are difficult to interpret. It is estimated that inflation rose to 3.0% in December 2025 (2.7% in November) and, affected by delayed tariff transmission, will rise further in 2026, with an estimated end-of-year rate of 3.2%. Due to slower employment growth being offset by declining labor force growth, the average unemployment rate is expected to be 4.6% in 2026, close to recent levels. We expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice in the first half of 2026, reducing the federal funds rate (ceiling) to 3.25%. (Jin Shi)