南亚科（2408）today became a market focal point. Driven by Micron’s optimistic outlook, the stock surged to a historic high of 190 yuan intraday, closing at 189 yuan with a sharp daily gain of 7.08% and trading volume simultaneously expanding to 1.17 million shares. This rally is not a flash in the pan—hidden behind it is a profound reshaping of supply and demand dynamics in the memory industry.
1B process enters capacity release stage, ASP elasticity hits rare decade high
The core driver of Nanya’s rise this round comes from its independently developed 10-nanometer generation second-generation process (1B) formally entering its revenue-generating period. According to latest statistics, 1B process products already account for over 30% of Nanya’s bit output in 2025, with 16Gb DDR5 5600 specifications already delivering stably, while higher-speed 6400 MT/s versions are also in validation sprint stages.
While keeping pace with international major manufacturers, Nanya has successfully achieved a balance between maintaining DDR4 pricing advantages and narrowing DDR5 process gaps. This optimization of product structure is directly translating into a reversal of gross margin rates—as 16Gb DDR5 shipment proportion breaks through the double-digit revenue threshold, the qualitative shift in product mix has already emerged.
Institutional analysts estimate that Nanya’s this-quarter ASP sequential growth is expected to be substantially raised from the original 35% to 55%, a growth rate that is extremely rare in the past decade’s business cycle.
Global capacity reallocation triggers century-level DDR4 shortage, Nanya becomes hot commodity
The external factors driving all these changes are equally critical—the three major memory manufacturers are capturing high-bandwidth memory (HBM) essential for AI servers with unprecedented force, resulting in substantial shifts of existing DDR4 capacity. This resource crowding out triggered dramatic volatility in the DDR4 market at the end of 2025.
Chinese manufacturer Changxin Memory announced cutting its 2026 DDR4 monthly capacity by half to 10,000 wafers, while Micron’s Crucial consumer brand also announced stopping production of certain DDR4 specifications in early 2026. As major manufacturers reduce output, Nanya, which still maintains efficient DDR4 capacity, has instead become the target of global systems vendors competing for orders. This reversal has completely rewritten the fate of traditional cyclical stocks.
Transformation from cyclical stock to AI infrastructure dividend stock
Institutional circles have initiated collective upward revisions of Nanya’s 2026 profit prospects. Major state-owned investment advisors have raised target price from 160 yuan to 230 yuan, reflecting confidence in its 2026 gross margin reaching the historic high of 64.5%. By then, single-year EPS is expected to surge from the original 14 yuan to 23.25 yuan.
Technically, Nanya pulled a solid bullish candle today, successfully standing above all moving averages, with RSI and KD simultaneously showing bullish alignment. Although short-term chip games remain aggressive, as long as the gap support holds, stock price still maintains structural upward momentum.
Seasonal variables and concentration risk warrant caution
Investors should note that entering the end of 2025, year-end holidays may bring volume contraction and brief consolidation. Combined with the memory sector’s collective surge today and modules manufacturers like ADATA hitting the daily limit, the concern of excessive capital concentration deserves attention. Should short-term profit-taking pressure attack the price, stock volatility will inevitably expand.
For long-term positioning, Nanya has completed its identity transformation from traditional cyclical stock to AI infrastructure dividend stock. Subsequent stock price movements will depend on DRAM spot and contract price trends in early 2026—only as long as the uptrend remains unchanged will Nanya’s bull market path be truly launched.
南亞科1B製程迎え収穫期へ、景気循環株からAIインフラボーナス株への脱皮？230元目標価格の背後にある産能大転移
南亚科（2408）today became a market focal point. Driven by Micron’s optimistic outlook, the stock surged to a historic high of 190 yuan intraday, closing at 189 yuan with a sharp daily gain of 7.08% and trading volume simultaneously expanding to 1.17 million shares. This rally is not a flash in the pan—hidden behind it is a profound reshaping of supply and demand dynamics in the memory industry.
1B process enters capacity release stage, ASP elasticity hits rare decade high
The core driver of Nanya’s rise this round comes from its independently developed 10-nanometer generation second-generation process (1B) formally entering its revenue-generating period. According to latest statistics, 1B process products already account for over 30% of Nanya’s bit output in 2025, with 16Gb DDR5 5600 specifications already delivering stably, while higher-speed 6400 MT/s versions are also in validation sprint stages.
While keeping pace with international major manufacturers, Nanya has successfully achieved a balance between maintaining DDR4 pricing advantages and narrowing DDR5 process gaps. This optimization of product structure is directly translating into a reversal of gross margin rates—as 16Gb DDR5 shipment proportion breaks through the double-digit revenue threshold, the qualitative shift in product mix has already emerged.
Institutional analysts estimate that Nanya’s this-quarter ASP sequential growth is expected to be substantially raised from the original 35% to 55%, a growth rate that is extremely rare in the past decade’s business cycle.
Global capacity reallocation triggers century-level DDR4 shortage, Nanya becomes hot commodity
The external factors driving all these changes are equally critical—the three major memory manufacturers are capturing high-bandwidth memory (HBM) essential for AI servers with unprecedented force, resulting in substantial shifts of existing DDR4 capacity. This resource crowding out triggered dramatic volatility in the DDR4 market at the end of 2025.
Chinese manufacturer Changxin Memory announced cutting its 2026 DDR4 monthly capacity by half to 10,000 wafers, while Micron’s Crucial consumer brand also announced stopping production of certain DDR4 specifications in early 2026. As major manufacturers reduce output, Nanya, which still maintains efficient DDR4 capacity, has instead become the target of global systems vendors competing for orders. This reversal has completely rewritten the fate of traditional cyclical stocks.
Transformation from cyclical stock to AI infrastructure dividend stock
Institutional circles have initiated collective upward revisions of Nanya’s 2026 profit prospects. Major state-owned investment advisors have raised target price from 160 yuan to 230 yuan, reflecting confidence in its 2026 gross margin reaching the historic high of 64.5%. By then, single-year EPS is expected to surge from the original 14 yuan to 23.25 yuan.
Technically, Nanya pulled a solid bullish candle today, successfully standing above all moving averages, with RSI and KD simultaneously showing bullish alignment. Although short-term chip games remain aggressive, as long as the gap support holds, stock price still maintains structural upward momentum.
Seasonal variables and concentration risk warrant caution
Investors should note that entering the end of 2025, year-end holidays may bring volume contraction and brief consolidation. Combined with the memory sector’s collective surge today and modules manufacturers like ADATA hitting the daily limit, the concern of excessive capital concentration deserves attention. Should short-term profit-taking pressure attack the price, stock volatility will inevitably expand.
For long-term positioning, Nanya has completed its identity transformation from traditional cyclical stock to AI infrastructure dividend stock. Subsequent stock price movements will depend on DRAM spot and contract price trends in early 2026—only as long as the uptrend remains unchanged will Nanya’s bull market path be truly launched.