Stop fixating on Trump’s remarks? The real Bitcoin price movement signals are in the tanker rates and insurance premiums

Gate News message: Over the past four weeks, Bitcoin’s price action has continued to be repeatedly whipsawed around $66,000, largely driven by remarks from U.S. President Trump about the situation in Iran. When he released signals of moderation, risk assets rose in the short term; when his comments turned hardline, sell-offs were triggered quickly, and oil prices moved higher in tandem. In a highly uncertain environment, traders are gradually realizing that it isn’t political statements that truly determine the direction of the market, but rather energy supply and transportation data.

The current key variable comes from the Strait of Hormuz. This shipping lane accounts for about 20% of global seaborne oil transport and has been nearly at a standstill since the conflict erupted in late February. Member countries of the International Energy Agency have released more than 400 million barrels of strategic reserves to ease the supply shortfall, but this buffer is expected to run out within the next few weeks. Once reserves hit bottom, the global daily crude oil supply gap could widen to more than 10 million barrels, further boosting inflation and interest-rate expectations and exerting sustained pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Another important metric that the market has been overlooking is tanker insurance costs. Currently, the navigation premium for the Strait of Hormuz has surged from less than 1% before the war to about 7.5%, indicating that shipping risk remains elevated. Historical experience shows that only when this indicator falls back below 2% does it mean the safety of the route has recovered, giving risk assets a more solid foundation for a rebound. By comparison, policy statements are unlikely to provide the same level of certainty.

At the same time, tanker throughput has not yet recovered. Data shows that after the outbreak of the conflict, only about 21 tankers have passed through the strait, versus more than 100 per day before the war. The lag in transportation recovery indicates that the supply chain remains tight.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin may still trade in a range in the short term and even face downside pressure. Only if tanker volumes rise noticeably, transportation risk declines, and energy prices stabilize at the same time, might the market see a rebound that is more sustained. (CoinDesk)