#永续合约与杠杆交易 Seeing the record high trading volume in perpetual contracts in 2025 (weekly trading volume of $340 billion), my first reaction is not excitement, but concern.

What is hidden behind this number? Is it genuine demand for risk hedging, or another round of疯狂杠杆游戏? I have reviewed many bloody cases—a small account going up in smoke within three or five days due to irrational operations with 0.5x leverage. Perpetual contracts are like a finely sharpened knife; in the hands of those who respect it, they are tools, but in the hands of those who take chances, they become deadly weapons.

What worries me most is that many people are fooled by the illusion that "high trading volume = high profit opportunity." Large trading volume does not mean it is suitable for your participation. Instead, I suggest asking yourself three questions: First, do you have clear position management rules? Second, do you truly understand how leverage threatens your principal? Third, does your risk tolerance match your account size?

Rather than following the trend of perpetual contracts, it’s better to first master more moderate strategies like spot trading + options. Selling call or put options to generate cash flow locks in your principal but allows you to immediately earn option premiums—this approach makes me sleep better at night. In the long run, a稳健的资产配置 is always more valuable than一次暴利.

2026 will test fundamentals and rational decision-making even more. Those who survive are often not the ones who earn the most, but the ones who last the longest.