NewbiePlaysBlockchain

#预测市场平台 Seeing CZ talk about prediction markets and long-term opportunities, I was reminded that many friends have recently asked me the same question: "Are these new tracks opportunities? Should I go all in?"
Honestly, there is a phrase in CZ's view that is worth pondering—"True victory is achieved in long-term competition." Prediction markets are indeed hot, but their popularity often comes with risks. I see too many people attracted by short-term hot spots, ignoring a fundamental rule: in the early stages of any emerging track, uncertainty is very high.
Cryptocurrency markets are still in

#比特币价格走势 Seeing two predictions about Bitcoin's 2026 trend, I want to share some thoughts with everyone.
On one hand, Tom Lee's team believes Bitcoin is expected to hit a new all-time high before the end of January next year, with a year-end target of about $115,000, which indeed gives many people hope. But on the other hand, they also clearly point out that there may be a noticeable decline in the first half of 2026, with Bitcoin possibly falling back to $60,000-$65,000.
These two viewpoints seem contradictory, but they actually reflect a very realistic issue—long-term optimism does not mean

#AI交易应用 Seeing CZ's discussion about AI trading, I thought of the recent anxiety among many investor friends.
Indeed, AI trading tools are gaining popularity, but the paradox he raises is worth our deep reflection: if an AI algorithm could truly make stable profits, why would the developer sell it as a service to you and me instead of making money quietly themselves? This logical loophole precisely reflects the reality of many "magical tools" in the market.
More importantly, that sentence—once a successful strategy is widely adopted, its effectiveness diminishes. The market is essentially a p

#资产代币化 Recently, I have observed new developments in the tokenization of the US stock market, and I want to share some thoughts with everyone.
The SEC's no-action letter to DTC has been widely interpreted as "US stocks are finally going on-chain," but the true meaning of this document is much more complex. A careful reading reveals that it is not about revolutionizing the stocks themselves, but rather optimizing the back-end bookkeeping method—re-mapping existing rights and interests using blockchain technology to improve settlement efficiency. The framework for risk control and regulation re

#比特币价格走势 Seeing the RSI drop to its lowest level in nearly three years, many people are starting to get restless. But I want to remind everyone that extreme overselling can indeed present a rebound opportunity—this logic itself is sound—just make sure to understand that a rebound ≠ bottom, and short-term reactions ≠ long-term trends.
Bitcoin has fallen from 126,000 to 80,500, a 36% decline that is certainly enough to cause concern. Looking at these numbers, it's easy to feel the impulse to "buy the dip." But a truly prudent approach is to ask yourself a few questions first: Have I already res

#比特币价格走势 Recently, on-chain data shows that short-term holders are already selling at a loss, and the RSI indicator has also hit its lowest point in nearly three years. At such times, it’s often not the market itself that’s tested, but our mindset.
I remember a friend who experienced a similar extreme oversold condition at the beginning of 2023. He was not swept up in panic but stuck to his position management plan—cut losses where needed, hold firm where necessary. Looking back now, that bottom area indeed turned out to be a good opportunity for deployment.
The key is to understand that shor

#比特币技术分析 Seeing the recent analysis about RSI being extremely oversold, I want to share an observation with everyone.
Technical indicators are indeed speaking—BTC weekly RSI has fallen to its lowest level in nearly three years, and the ratio of ETH to the Nasdaq has also touched historical lows. From a data perspective, all these point to one signal: the market may have reached an extreme sentiment.
But I want to emphasize that oversold indicators ≠ an immediate buy signal. These signals only tell us that the possibility of a short-term rebound is increasing, and market sentiment has become o

#美联储降息 The new Federal Reserve chairperson is about to be announced, and market expectations for rate cuts are heating up again. Looking at these news, I am reminded of a recent conversation with friends—many are excitedly discussing "Rate cuts are coming, should we increase our holdings?"
But what I want to say is that policy shifts are often the moments when we need to stay the most calm. The expectation of rate cuts has already been reflected in the market, and the real test is: how will the market react when these expectations are finally realized? Historical experience tells us that ther

#美联储流动性政策 Tonight at 21:30, the US November CPI and unemployment data will be released. These two figures may seem like mere statistics, but they can directly influence the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy direction—whether to cut interest rates or hold steady.
Powell made it very clear a few days ago that the labor market is cooling, but inflation remains somewhat "stubborn." Goldman Sachs analysts' judgment is also noteworthy: the Fed's preemptive rate cut cycle may have already come to an end, and future policy space depends on whether the data continues to weaken.
This has a significant

#加密货币监管政策 These days, I’ve seen TikTok’s new regulations banning the use of concepts like blockchain and digital assets to package illegal financial content. Honestly, I support this.
Over the years, I’ve seen too many investors lured in by sweet talk, only to end up losing everything. Those things that claim to be innovative often carry the greatest risks. Every time regulatory authorities set new standards, it may seem like restrictions, but in fact, they are protecting those of us who genuinely want to invest wisely.
What I want to say is that the tighter the policies become, the more we n

#稳定币市场发展 The shift in regulatory attitude is often deeper than we imagine. The news that the Federal Reserve is easing restrictions on crypto activities may seem simple, but it actually reflects the gradual maturation of the financial system's understanding of digital assets.
I noticed a detail: the reason for policy adjustments is "the understanding of innovative products and services by the financial system and regulatory agencies has changed." This tells us that communication between industry practitioners and regulators is indeed playing a role. Products like stablecoins, which were once

#AI与加密货币结合 Recently, I noticed an interesting phenomenon: there is a clear disconnect between the investment boom in the AI field and the actual revenue growth. Capital is continuously flowing into infrastructure construction, but the speed of monetization cannot keep up. If this mismatch persists, the risk may spread from the tech sector to the entire stock market.
This reminds me of an old principle: no matter how good the story is, it ultimately has to be reflected in real numbers. The cryptocurrency market is also under pressure, potentially facing large outflows of funds. The confidence

#比特币价格走势与预测 Seeing the data update on Polymarket, I am thinking that many people might feel anxious — the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 again this year has dropped from higher expectations to 11%, and the risk of falling below $80,000 is also increasing. This shift in market sentiment is indeed worth our careful consideration.
But rather than fixating on these probability figures, I am more concerned about everyone's mindset and positions. What does the adjustment in market expectations indicate? It suggests that uncertainty is increasing, and this is exactly when we need to exerci

#美联储降息政策 Recently, I came across a viewpoint that I think is worth sharing with everyone. Continuous capital inflows into the AI infrastructure sector indicate optimism about the future, but the problem is—these huge investments' return cycles may be seriously underestimated.
If AI companies' revenue growth cannot keep pace with investments, the risk will not be limited to the tech sector but will spread to the entire stock market. Once this valuation re-evaluation occurs, it could impact multiple parts of our investment portfolios.
This is why I have always emphasized the importance of posit

#空投活动 Seeing the news about the ZKP airdrop, many friends are asking whether they should participate. I want to say that these kinds of activities can indeed bring some gains; a single transaction earning $42 is not insignificant. However, the key is to understand what you are doing.
Before participating in the airdrop, I suggest asking yourself a few questions: What proportion of my total assets does this gain represent? What risks am I willing to take for this airdrop? How should I evaluate the liquidity and long-term value of the new token?
The mechanism of gradually lowering the points th

#美联储降息政策 Seeing the recent policy movements of central banks worldwide, I want to share some observations with everyone. The Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates again before June next year, and the Bank of England has also hinted at slowing down the pace of rate cuts—this reflects that central banks around the world are cautiously testing the waters, as the trajectories of inflation, employment, and growth are still unclear.
What does this uncertainty mean for us as investors? My advice is straightforward: don't overly bet on a single policy direction. Many people become aggress

#比特币价格走势 Recently, many analysts have been quite optimistic about Bitcoin's target levels, with expectations ranging from $106,000 to $170,000, covering a significant range. But I want to remind everyone that behind these impressive numbers, there's a case worth our deep reflection—the large holder with a position worth $694 million, whose account now has an unrealized loss of $78.3 million, with only $15.92 million in margin remaining.
This is not to dampen enthusiasm but to share a simple truth: even the smartest market participants can fall into a passive position due to excessive leverage

#加密货币监管 Seeing the recent release of the crypto asset trading regulatory consultation by the US SEC, my first reaction is: this is a positive signal, but it also reminds us to think more cautiously about our asset allocation.
The gradual improvement of the regulatory framework essentially aims to protect investors. The willingness of SEC staff to cooperate with market participants to promote compliant trading indicates a shift in regulatory approach from "one-size-fits-all" to "scientific regulation." This indeed reduces risks for participants trading on regulated platforms.
But there's an ea

#RWA代币化 Seeing the news that Circle launched the Arc Developer Fund, I started to think: why does the path of real-world asset tokenization need to be built step by step?
The answer is actually simple—safety first. The prospects of RWA are indeed enticing, but what truly reassures me are the teams quietly working on the infrastructure. The key areas supported by the Arc fund—from on-chain markets to private credit, from stablecoin liquidity to energy protocols—each point in the same direction: using deterministic settlement and verifiable mechanisms to carry real value.
This reminds me of a s

#比特币价格预测 Seeing this message, I am reminded of a case I encountered last year. A large holder made a series of frequent target position data releases after correctly predicting the direction once, attracting many followers. What was the result? Their subsequent predictions became less accurate.
There is a detail in this news that is worth noting—although the agent stated that the bearish argument is untenable, the data at the same time shows that the current unrealized loss of the account has reached $78.3 million, with only $15.92 million in margin remaining. This means that even experienced