#我在Gate广场过新年 BTC ETH Technical Analysis Deep Dive

1. From a technical indicator perspective, Bitcoin (BTC) remains in a bearish configuration on the daily chart, with MACD fast and slow lines below the zero axis, indicating that bearish momentum has not yet been fully released. However, the 4-hour candlestick chart found support near $65,800, showing signs of stabilization and rebound. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, and short-term volatility is decreasing.
Key price levels:
Support levels: The short-term key support is $65,000, which is the low support area after today’s sharp decline. If broken, the price may test $63,000 again. Stronger support below is at $60,000, which is the support platform from October 2025.
Resistance levels: The short-term resistance is at $68,600, which was previously a critical support/resistance line. Breaking above could target $70,000. The strong resistance zone above is between $72,000 and $73,500. Only a breakout above this zone would signal a reversal of the downtrend.
2. Ethereum (ETH) shows weaker momentum than Bitcoin. On the 4-hour chart, it is oscillating above the $1,900 support level with insufficient volume, weak rebound, and MACD lines still in the bearish zone on the daily chart, indicating short-term rebound momentum is lacking. Key price levels:
Support levels: The short-term support is at $1,900. If broken, it could fall back to around $1,850. Stronger support below is at $1,800, which is the support platform from January 2026.
Resistance levels: The short-term resistance is at $2,000, with a target of $2,050 if broken. Medium-term resistance is at $2,200, which is the previous consolidation zone.
Contract Trading Strategies
1. Short-term strategies
Bitcoin: For positions above $65,000, consider small long positions with a stop-loss at $64,500, targeting $68,000. If it falls below $64,500, switch to short positions with a target of $63,000.
Ethereum: For positions above $1,900, consider small long positions with a stop-loss at $1,880, targeting $2,000. If it falls below $1,880, consider waiting or small short positions with a target of $1,850.
2. Mid-term strategies
The market is still in a consolidation and recovery phase. Post-NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) data, market uncertainty remains. It is advisable to wait and see before making large moves. If Bitcoin stabilizes above $68,600, consider medium-term long positions; if it drops below $65,000, consider medium-term short positions.
3. Risk Management Recommendations
Given recent high volatility and the impact of NFP data, investors should keep leverage below 3x and position sizes no more than 10%. Strictly adhere to stop-loss strategies, avoid heavy positions, prioritize risk control, and wait for clearer market signals before increasing exposure.
Market Outlook
In the short term, the crypto market is in a stabilization and recovery phase after a sharp decline. The key is whether Bitcoin can hold above $68,600 and whether Ethereum can break through $2,000. Breaking key resistance levels could extend the rebound; losing key support might lead to further downside testing.
In the medium term, if Ethereum’s EIP-8025 proposal is implemented, it will enhance network performance, benefiting the Ethereum ecosystem long-term. Bitcoin still awaits clarity on Federal Reserve monetary policy. If rate cuts are expected to materialize, a market rebound could be triggered. Investors should monitor related technological project opportunities and pay attention to how Fed policies and geopolitical developments influence the market.