Degentrading

$BTC breaking down suddenly on a friday - i think we get some headlines over the weekend. reduced my risk.

pre mkt thoughts 22 may 26
US yields continued their chop with a downward drift with 30y at 5.08 and 10y at 4.55 - roughly a parallel move of 10bps downwards. US equities are strong for the day with ES at 7480, nearing the previous highs of 7500s. In asian trading KOSPI is almost flat.
Given the strong performance of $SNDK in US hours yesterday, 285A Kioxia has also traded a touch firmer up at 57k JPY - for context this is the highest range that Kioxia has traded at. There are also more news coming out of workarounds from the high memory prices - notably using optical interconnects to move the

closing thoughts 21 may 26
memory opened strongly with SNDK in particular surging 10% while MU did 3%. $SNDK has the highs of 1620 within reach. Given the topside skew, call flies are actually of decent value to express upside views.
beyond semis, i noticed another sector with extremely strong performance that is not talked about much on X - fuel cells. $NBIS signed a deal with $BE - this has started repricing $BE, $FCEL and $ENPH. The battery names are up ~10-30% today putting in a very strong performance. For $ENPH, this got a mention by citrini prior for having high short exposure. My expec

pre mkt thoughts - 20 May 26
US yields at highs. For context, 5.18% on the 30Y is the highest since the 2007-2008 era. On the 10Y we are at 4.65%. Previously the 5% mark for the 10Y saw heavy jaw boning and intervention. Levels im looking at - 5.8% on the 30Y, 5% on the 10Y.
$NVDA reports earnings today after market close. Expectations are for revs of 79bn and EPS of ~1.8. However caveat is that everyone is expecting $NVDA to beat these numbers. So what are the real expectations? IMO, unless we see a very strong beat, $NVDA will probably not do much. The past earnings price action have been r

mkt thoughts 19 May 2026
Yields at their highs, 30Y at 5.18 and 10Y at 4.65. SPX, XAU and $BTC are all trading softer.
Into the open we have a strong reaction by the semi complex with $MU $SNDK and the even photonic names $LITE rebounding 3% in a single candle into the open.
The narrative of chinese suppliers entering the market in 2027 is also getting wider attention, likewise with Samsung and SK Hynix both accelerating the build out of their fabs. Fundamentally, the question of whether memory remains cyclical or escapes from that really depends on the tension between supply and demand. Histo

if i had to pick a market that would be extra volatile - it would be korea. $EWY $KOSPI. The fact that retail has been leveraging up on margin to bid korean names will result in excess volatility. More so to the downside than the upside since margin calls can beget further margin calls.

Pre mkt thoughts - 18 May 26
Spotlight on yields as they continue their ascent worldwide. US30 and 10Y went above 5.15 and 4.63 respectively in early Asian trading. meanwhile JGBs also had a huge move in long term rates almost 15bps!....correspondingly, risk assets opened lower in asian trading with some recovering by the european session. notable ones with strength - $MU opened lower but recovered to fridays highs ~740. $SMH as well was trading ~550s before recovering to 560s,
Assets that showed weakness - $btc, $eth - crypto has taken on all the downside without much of the upside recovery.

pre mkt thoughts
- on european open there was some positive headlines out about trade normalisation between US and China, yet that did not do anything for SPX. funnily, it fell! - this to me marked a tone shift in market structure over the last 6 weeks.
- we had huge cta covering to start this rally in April, - then CTAs had about 50B to buy if mkts rebounded up. Not saying mkts will go down 5%, but the equivalent sell pressure now looks to be about 180B if we do hit air pockets below.
vol thoughts
-atm spx vol is cheap. put skew is also VERY cheap. this makes the cost of hedging really low.
-

this is a good spot to be adding to nuclear names that are down across the board

$CBRS - pretty volatile IPO trading for this - but opening at $385 before being halted - looks like momentum for this is dwindling. odd. personally thought that this would go higher

pre mkt thoughts
most degens (and me! im just a degen pls dont hurt me uwu) are probably eagerly awaiting one of the biggest IPOs for this year - $CBRS
touted as a $nvda killer - this is currently trading on HL with v thin volume at $285 - priced at $185 in the IPO round. originally was filed at 115-125 range on may 4 before being bumped all the way up.
the bear thesis for this is that it effectively only has OAI as a client right now.... valuation wise it is at 510M 2025 rev so ~ current valuations definitely come from the hope that they can supplant $nvda as the only game in town!
trading w

the support levels for some of the recent runners are 30-50% lower... not saying they will nuke down to that.
$SNDK 770 -45%
$MU 480 -40%
$INTC 72 -40%
the trend is your friend until it bends.

1/n - Do prediction markets predict? Or do they cause the event itself?

mid day thoughts
- 10y yields at 4.5% and 30y at 5.05% - yields are breaking out for the 30y and while this probably doesnt stop the equity train, i think this will definitely sap some momentum from the market.
- memory continues to hold with $mu outperforming $sndk
- $WOLF has held on to its pre market gains but another dark knight emerges - $NOK trades strongly above 14 - making a almost 10% gain for the day. This could be related to speculation building upon $NOK being mentioned in $NVDA earnings call for next week

pre mkt thoughts
MU @ 810, SNDK @ 1530 SMH @ 575 pre mkt - very strong bounce across memory names - sets up into some interesting trades to take on NYO.
Citrini dropped a new ticker - $WOLF. this is currently up 22% in pre market and was up almost 40% at one point... take about crazy moves. However, bear in mind $WOLF is pretty much a cheap binary play @ 2B mkt cap (then) on the SiC thesis....either this works or it doesnt and the company goes back into bankruptcy because of its capex. for those who arent familiar, go read the lore. it's quite juicy
Away from that, Unitree dropped its newest

also it is a little crazy to me that people refused to buy $MU at 630 because its ATH but are actually excited to buy $MU at 730 because it dropped 10%?

quick thoughts pre mkt
Korea had a scare in the early morning when a policymaker floated the idea of redistribution of "gains" from the memory shortage beneficiaries like samsung and SK Hynix. IMO - This is why there is a valuation gap between KR, JP and US equities. Stock and equity holders do not share the same protections that they are afforded in the US.
Aside from that, these comments are probably a first indication that while the AI roll out is indeed REAL. Governments may have to step in to equitise between the "haves" and "haves not". What that means is equity price down.
Overall, i

What to keep a tight eye on - $AAOI and $SIVE - On market open, if $AAOI takes a sustained drawdown, could lead to potential derisking across the serenity tickers. $SIVE is already down 10% today

1/n - Back in Jul 2024, i laid out my thesis for $GLXY at $8.1, in Nov 2025 - i advocated for $INTC (~$38). My strongest conviction now is in Nuclear