Por que o Bitcoin reagiu hoje? A ameaça de tarifas de Trump, o cenário do relatório de empregos não agrícolas e a onda de busca por proteção

Bitcoin rebounded above $91,000. Geopolitical safe-haven demand drove gold up $20 to $4,477, with Bitcoin benefiting from safe-haven spillover effects; the US Supreme Court will rule as early as Friday on whether Trump’s tariffs are legal, and if ruled illegal, it will severely damage his economic policy and trigger billions of dollars in tax refund disputes; the non-farm employment report will be released Friday with estimated new jobs at 60,000, the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice this year, and a low-interest-rate environment is favorable for Bitcoin.

Spillover effects of geopolitical safe-haven demand

(Source: Trading View)

Affected by safe-haven demand triggered by geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin rebounded to above $91,000 in the short term. Geopolitical risks continue to provide market support. The arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro and US President Trump’s threat to extend such actions to other Latin American countries have made investors anxious, thus turning to safe-haven demand for precious metals.

Recently, two oil tankers related to Venezuela were seized in the Atlantic, deepening market concerns about energy and regional situations. Additionally, foreign media reported that US officials had discussed providing one-time monetary compensation to Greenland residents to encourage them to break away from Denmark and align with the US. On Thursday local time, Trump stated that the US must “own” all of Greenland, not just exercise military and defense rights there under existing treaties.

On Thursday, Josep Borrell, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, stated that US threats regarding Greenland are “deeply concerning” and called on the US to respect international law. White House Press Secretary Levitt stated that the President and his team are discussing “multiple options” to achieve the goal of acquiring Greenland, including “deploying the US military.” This geopolitical tension has driven gold safe-haven demand, with some funds also flowing into Bitcoin as an alternative safe-haven tool as “digital gold.”

Kitco Metals senior analyst noted that the level of risk felt by precious metals traders currently is higher than that felt by stock and bond market traders, and the US’s weekend raid on Venezuela continues to drive safe-haven buying in gold and silver. HSBC noted that amid rising geopolitical risks and related factors, gold prices are expected to reach $5,000/ounce in the first half of 2026. As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold soared 64.4% for the full year last year, marking its best annual performance since 1979.

Three catalysts for Bitcoin’s rally today

Geopolitical safe-haven spillover: Gold up $20, Bitcoin benefits from digital gold safe-haven demand

Tariff ruling expectations: Supreme Court may rule Friday, policy uncertainty drives safe-haven flows

Before non-farm data: Estimated 60,000 new jobs, rate-cut expectations support low-interest-rate environment

Technical rebound: Breakthrough from $85,000-$90,000 range, testing $94,000 resistance

Market impact of Trump tariff ruling

The US Supreme Court has designated Friday as “Opinion Release Day.” US Bloomberg believes this means Friday will be the first opportunity to rule on the global tariffs implemented by President Trump. Lower courts ruled the tariffs illegal last year but agreed to continue enforcing them while awaiting the Supreme Court ruling. If ruled illegal, it will severely damage Trump’s core economic policy and trigger billions of dollars in tax refund disputes.

If the Supreme Court rules unfavorably for Trump on tariffs, it will undermine his signature economic policy and become his biggest legal setback since returning to the White House. It will also trigger complex tax refund disputes, with over 1,000 companies currently in line to apply for refunds of paid tariffs. This policy uncertainty drives capital flows toward safe-haven assets. Bitcoin, as an asset not controlled by any single government, gains additional demand in such an environment.

Non-farm data and Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations

The market will focus on the US December non-farm employment report to be released Friday. Economists estimate December new job additions at 60,000, down from 64,000 in the previous month, while the unemployment rate is expected to decline slightly from 4.6% to 4.5%. Other labor market data also shows that US employment momentum has cooled slightly, with initial jobless claims rising modestly last week, November job openings declining more than expected, and December private sector employment growth falling short of market estimates.

The market currently reflects expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut rates twice this year. Since gold is a non-yielding asset, it typically performs better in low-interest-rate environments. Bitcoin likewise benefits from a low-interest-rate environment, as rate cuts reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Marvin Loh, senior global market strategist at State Street Bank, stated: “The market is looking for clearer evidence to determine which direction the economy is heading. Market consensus still holds that as the Fed still expects to cut rates, the US dollar may continue to weaken going forward.” A weakening dollar typically favors dollar-denominated assets like Bitcoin.

Experts warn sustainability of the rebound is questionable

Although Bitcoin rebounded today, multiple analysts expect narrow-range consolidation to continue. Gerry O’Shea, head of global market insights at Hashdex, stated: “There may be some catalysts over the next few weeks to support price increases.” He noted that potential shifts in US monetary policy or congressional progress on cryptocurrency legislation, “but currently, we remain in a range-bound market.”

Jim Feraioli, head of cryptocurrency research at Charles Schwab, believes that Bitcoin’s eightfold increase from the November 2022 low to the October 2025 high of $126,000 in three years means “the market is still digesting this move.” Since hitting an all-time high in October, on-chain transaction activity has declined, with inflows to ETFs becoming the main driver of price movement. “Real institutional investors haven’t really entered this space yet. Once relevant legislation is enacted, this could become the next catalyst to drive sustained increases in Bitcoin prices.”

Overall, Bitcoin’s rebound today was driven by geopolitical safe-haven flows, tariff ruling expectations, and technical buying ahead of non-farm data, but experts warn this may just be a rebound within range-bound consolidation rather than a trend reversal.