Yardeni Confirms S&P 500 Bottom March 30 as Market Shifts to Fundamentals

Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, reaffirmed in April 2024 interviews that the S&P 500 index bottomed on March 30, 2024, and maintained his year-end 2026 target of 7,700, according to his published commentary. Yardeni stated that investor focus has shifted away from geopolitical tensions toward corporate earnings and economic fundamentals, marking a significant change in market sentiment following the escalation of US-Iran conflict tensions in late February 2024.

Market Bottom Call and Recovery Trajectory

Yardeni noted that the S&P 500’s approximately 9% drawdown from peak to trough aligned closely with his earlier prediction of a 10–15% correction range, lending credibility to his bottom-call assessment, according to his April interviews. He emphasized that the market’s recovery has been driven by declining geopolitical risk premiums and improving expectations for US-Iran ceasefire negotiations, which accelerated in early April 2024.

The broader market recovery has been pronounced: the MSCI Global Index recovered all losses sustained during the conflict period and reached a record high, while the Nasdaq-100 recorded a ten-day winning streak, and the US dollar experienced its longest losing streak since 2006, per market data cited in analyst reports published in April 2024.

Shift from Geopolitical Risk to Earnings Focus

Yardeni characterized the current market environment as one in which investors have learned to “coexist” with geopolitical risks rather than treating them as dominant market drivers. He stated that the market is now prioritizing company financial performance and earnings capacity over headline geopolitical developments, according to his April commentary.

This sentiment shift is reflected in institutional positioning: a global fund manager survey conducted in mid-April 2024 indicated that geopolitical conflict remained the top tail risk concern for the second consecutive month, yet market pricing suggested reduced acute crisis premium, per survey data cited by major financial institutions.

Tactical Adjustment in Technology Sector

In mid-April 2024, Yardeni adjusted his positioning on the “Magnificent 7” technology stocks from “underweight” to “market weight” following a significant valuation reset. The group’s price-to-earnings ratio compressed from approximately 31x to as low as 22x during the market drawdown, according to Yardeni’s analysis.

This tactical shift marked Yardeni’s first signal of re-engagement with mega-cap technology stocks since December 2025, when he had ended a 15-year overweight recommendation on the sector. In his 2026 outlook report published in December 2025, Yardeni had cited excessive market concentration risk, noting that the Magnificent 7 represented approximately 45% of the S&P 500’s total market capitalization. At that time, he had introduced the term “Impressive 493” to describe the remaining 493 companies in the S&P 500 and recommended increased exposure to financial services, industrial, and healthcare sectors, per his published research.

Long-Term Economic Outlook and “Roaring 2020s” Framework

Yardeni maintains a long-term optimistic stance on the US economy, framing the current environment as the “Roaring 2020s”—a decade of strong and sustainable economic growth driven by rapid productivity gains. He projects that corporate earnings per share will reach $350 by 2027, supporting his S&P 500 target of 7,700 at the end of 2026 and a potential challenge of the 10,000 level by decade’s end, according to his published forecasts.

Even when Yardeni raised his probability of a market crash to 35% in early March 2024 (from an initial 20%), he maintained that the probability of the “Roaring 2020s” scenario continuing stood at 60%, significantly outweighing his 15% stagflation risk estimate, per his March 2024 research report. He cited US economic resilience demonstrated through multiple stress tests since the COVID-19 pandemic, including supply chain disruptions, inflation escalation, and interest rate increases, according to his commentary.

Divergent Analyst Perspectives and Risk Assessment

While Yardeni’s optimistic assessment has gained market traction, not all major Wall Street strategists concur. Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America, argued in mid-April 2024 that current market positioning indicators “have not yet reached the extreme bearish levels seen at recent major market lows,” per Bank of America’s published analysis. Hartnett’s team compared four historical market bottoms—the April 2025 tariff shock, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the COVID-19 crash, and the 2011 US debt downgrade—and concluded that market sentiment indicators were less extreme than those periods, suggesting that true capitulation may not yet have occurred.

Conversely, Goldman Sachs strategists projected an S&P 500 year-end 2026 target of 7,600, driven by sustained corporate earnings expansion and moderate economic growth, according to Goldman Sachs’ published research. Morgan Stanley’s Chief Investment Officer Michael Wilson noted that accelerating corporate earnings growth is providing downside protection for the S&P 500, per Morgan Stanley’s April 2024 commentary.

Risk Factors and Negotiation Dependencies

Yardeni acknowledged awareness of market risks, stating that excessive bullish sentiment has created some unease about crowded positioning. He noted that the current market phase involves rapid clearing of geopolitical risk premiums, with future trajectory highly dependent on substantive progress in US-Iran negotiations, according to his April interviews.

Key risk variables include potential negotiation breakdown before stated deadlines, ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption risks affecting global energy supplies, and the possibility of rapid sentiment reversal if geopolitical developments deteriorate unexpectedly, per analyst commentary published in April 2024.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: When did Ed Yardeni state that the S&P 500 bottomed?

According to Yardeni’s April 2024 interviews, he stated that the S&P 500 index bottomed on March 30, 2024. He noted that the approximately 9% drawdown from peak to trough aligned with his earlier prediction of a 10–15% correction range.

Q: What is Yardeni’s S&P 500 price target for the end of 2026?

Yardeni maintains a year-end 2026 target of 7,700 for the S&P 500, based on his projection that corporate earnings per share will reach $350 by 2027, according to his published forecasts. He also projects potential challenge of the 10,000 level by the end of the decade under his “Roaring 2020s” scenario.

Q: Do other major Wall Street strategists agree with Yardeni’s market bottom assessment?

Opinions diverge among major strategists. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley align with Yardeni’s optimistic view, with Goldman projecting a 7,600 S&P 500 target for year-end 2026 and Morgan Stanley noting earnings growth providing market protection. However, Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett argued that market positioning indicators have not yet reached the extreme bearish levels typical of major market bottoms, per Bank of America’s April 2024 analysis.