As of February 27, 2026, the crypto market is undergoing a profound shift in primary market narratives. The once-popular "Big Project Week"—marked by concentrated funding rounds and token generation events for major protocols—is fading, making way for a new wave of capital focused on artificial intelligence. This transition isn’t just about changing trends; it reflects a fundamental adjustment in industry logic. The market is becoming more cautious in valuing pure infrastructure projects, while showing strong appetite for AI ventures that solve real-world problems and possess genuine technological barriers.
According to Gate market data and aggregated public financing information, current primary market capital flows clearly exhibit a "return to real value." Investors are no longer chasing grand narratives blindly. Instead, they’re zeroing in on segments like AI agents, graph-model fusion, and embodied intelligence—areas that deliver tangible application value or capture real revenue.
The Rise of the AI Narrative: Background and Timeline
Looking back over the past six months, the evolution of primary market sentiment is easy to trace.
From late 2025 to early 2026, the market was still riding the momentum of "Big Project Week." Multiple billion-yuan infrastructure funding rounds landed in quick succession, and expectations for Layer 1, Layer 2, and cross-chain protocols remained high. However, as some legacy projects launched tokens that underperformed or even traded below their initial valuations, primary market valuation bubbles came under scrutiny.
By January 2026, a turning point emerged. The Hong Kong stock market ignited enthusiasm for AI assets, with companies like Biren Technology, Zhipu, and MiniMax going public and raising over HKD 5 billion each. These IPOs attracted top-tier institutions, including sovereign funds and industrial capital. This fervor quickly spilled over into the crypto primary market.
Since February, the AI narrative has heated up across the board. On one hand, prediction markets like Polymarket—thanks to their potential integration with AI agents—have seen trading volumes exceed $100 million for three consecutive weeks, becoming new gateways for on-chain traffic. On the other hand, funding events in embodied intelligence and AI agent infrastructure are being disclosed at a rapid pace. For example, AGILINK, specializing in dexterous robotic hands, completed a multi-hundred-million-yuan Series A round, and Juwei Technology closed an over one hundred million yuan Series A+ round. Upcoming earnings reports from Nvidia and Circle are seen as key indicators of the resonance between AI and crypto assets.
Data & Structural Analysis: Financing Flows and Market Dynamics
From a capital perspective, structural changes in the primary market are now pronounced.
Shrinking Funding for Traditional Crypto-Native Projects
Data shows that over the past four years, early-stage funding rounds—considered the industry’s fresh blood—have declined by 63.9%. The downward trend is especially evident for native projects like L1, L2, and DeFi. While some legacy projects continue to generate tokens, most are "old projects" funded one to three years ago, and innovation momentum is clearly lacking.
AI Sector’s Strong Capital Magnetism
In stark contrast, AI-related projects are now the focal point for investors. Taking the domestic primary market as an example, from February 9 to 23, 2026, the tech and manufacturing sectors closed 10 funding rounds, with disclosed amounts totaling approximately RMB 1.265 billion. Segments like embodied intelligence and advanced manufacturing are particularly active. A standout case is XinghaiTu, which completed a RMB 1 billion Series B round and has raised nearly RMB 3 billion in total, underscoring capital’s strong endorsement of the AI-robotics integration track.
External Assets and Prediction Markets as New Targets
With native asset supply drying up, the industry is looking outward for solutions. Prediction markets like Polymarket are gaining traction by turning external uncertainties into tradable assets, with weekly active trading addresses consistently surpassing 10,000. Additionally, tokenization of traditional assets (such as stocks and precious metals) is introducing new volatility and narratives to the crypto market.
Dissecting Market Sentiment: Consensus and Controversy
Attitudes toward the AI narrative are far from uniform; clear layers of opinion exist.
The mainstream optimists believe that the integration of AI agents and crypto infrastructure is ushering in a new era of "machine-to-machine payments." With tools like Polymarket CLI being released, AI agents can autonomously query markets and execute trades, making decisions within 200 milliseconds—speed and efficiency beyond human reach. Supporters see 2026 as the "commercial realization year" for AI, expecting projects with real revenue potential to chart independent trajectories.
Cautious observers point out that valuations for primary market AI projects are already lofty. Referring to the performance of newly listed AI stocks in Hong Kong, while Haizhi Technology surged 242% on its debut, most companies remain in strategic loss phases, with profitability yet to be proven. Some investors worry that the crypto AI sector could repeat DeFi’s cycle—after massive funding, the narrative peaks and tokens face immediate sell pressure upon launch.
The central debate: Is the current AI narrative a long-term trend driven by technological revolution, or simply a new concept manufactured by capital amid native asset exhaustion? This divergence itself fuels the dynamism of market competition.
Examining Narrative Authenticity: From Hype to Value Validation
To assess the authenticity of the AI narrative, it’s crucial to distinguish between short-term hype and long-term value.
In the short term, there’s certainly an element of concept-driven speculation. Some projects attract attention solely with the "AI" label, while their technical roadmap and commercialization remain unclear. Tokens like KITE, despite surging trading volumes, still face looming supply pressures from future unlocks.
In the long term, projects with genuine technical barriers and real-world application scenarios are beginning to stand out. For instance, Haizhi Technology’s graph-model fusion leverages deep integration between knowledge graphs and large models to reduce hallucination issues, already achieving commercial deployment in anti-fraud and intelligent operations. This "tech breakthrough → scenario validation → revenue growth" trajectory is a core criterion for judging narrative authenticity.
Similarly, in the AI agent space, platforms like LuckyLobster achieved over $10,704 in trading volume during early tests, with a win rate of 78.6%. Such real data provides initial support for the narrative.
Industry Impact Analysis: Reshaping Asset Supply and Trading Logic
The rise of the AI narrative is exerting multifaceted influence on the crypto industry.
First, it’s restructuring primary market asset supply. The old "token issuance – exchange listing – exit" standardized process is being replaced by more complex business models. AI projects typically require longer R&D cycles and deeper industrial resource integration, raising the bar for institutional investors’ professional capabilities.
Second, it’s spawning new trading paradigms. The entry of AI agents is changing the microstructure of prediction markets and on-chain trading as a whole. Algorithm-driven trading decisions, millisecond-level execution speeds, and rational operations immune to emotional swings may gradually become the norm. This means that future traders will compete not only with peers, but also with tireless code.
Third, it’s accelerating cross-market linkages. As traditional asset tokenization merges with the AI narrative, the interplay between crypto markets and the broader economy is intensifying. External factors—such as Nvidia earnings, Federal Reserve policies, and geopolitical events—are being transmitted to the blockchain more rapidly via prediction markets and other channels.
Scenario Projections: Multi-Path Evolution
Based on the current market structure, the future evolution of the AI narrative in primary markets may follow these paths:
| Evolution Path | Trigger Conditions | Market Performance |
|---|---|---|
| Optimistic Scenario | AI agents achieve scalable commercial applications; leading projects consistently exceed revenue expectations; traditional capital accelerates entry | AI sector forms an independent valuation system; primary market funding enthusiasm spreads to application layer; projects with real revenue earn valuation premiums |
| Neutral Scenario | Steady technical progress, but commercialization lags expectations; market sentiment fluctuates with macro environment | Capital concentrates in leading projects, while trailing projects struggle to raise funds; AI narrative becomes a regular sector, but loses excess premium |
| Cautious Scenario | Key projects face technical setbacks; tokens underperform post-launch; regulators question AI-crypto integration | Market sentiment cools, AI narrative enters a de-bubbling phase; primary market returns to rationality, with only solidly defensible projects surviving |
