According to the latest cryptocurrency analysis report from Goldman Sachs, the Ethereum network demonstrated remarkable fundamental strength in January 2026. Despite relatively weak market price performance, Ethereum saw significant month-over-month growth in on-chain active addresses, new addresses, and transaction volume. The report highlights that daily new addresses on Ethereum reached 427,000 in January, setting an all-time high and far surpassing the average of 162,000 addresses per day during the "DeFi Summer" of 2020. This stark comparison clearly shows that Ethereum’s user base is undergoing an unprecedented phase of expansion.
On-Chain Metrics in Focus
Data from the Goldman Sachs report reveals robust activity on the Ethereum network. In January 2026, Ethereum’s daily average active addresses increased by 27.5% month-over-month, new addresses grew by 26.8%, and transaction volume surged by 36.0%. Based on the 7-day moving average, daily active addresses reached 1.2 million, also hitting a record high. The comprehensive growth across these metrics points to a clear conclusion: user engagement and network utilization on Ethereum are rising sharply.
In contrast, Bitcoin’s on-chain activity showed a different trend. The analysis found that Bitcoin’s average daily transactions fell by 14.9% month-over-month, new addresses dropped by 3.6%, and active addresses declined by 2.7%.
Goldman Sachs specifically noted that Ethereum’s current market capitalization has dropped below its realized market cap, meaning that most ETH holders are currently sitting on unrealized losses. This suggests that, despite strong network usage, the price has yet to fully reflect Ethereum’s fundamental value.
From "DeFi Summer" to Network Evolution
Looking back at the "DeFi Summer" of 2020, Ethereum’s daily average of new addresses was 162,000. At that time, the network was congested due to the explosion of DeFi applications, and transaction fees soared. In comparison, January 2026 saw Ethereum’s daily new addresses reach 427,000—2.6 times the figure from 2020. The driving forces behind this growth are fundamentally different from those in 2020.
During the 2020 DeFi boom, Ethereum faced severe technical bottlenecks. Unconfirmed transactions once exceeded 127,000, and miner fee rewards accounted for as much as 19.4% of block rewards. Applications like USDT, SmartWay Forsage, and Uniswap contributed 97% of the network’s transaction fees. Today, with the maturation of Layer 2 scaling solutions, Ethereum’s transaction volume has surged while fees have dropped to their lowest levels in nine years. These technical advancements now allow the network to handle much larger volumes of user activity without congestion.
Divergence Between Market Price and Fundamentals
Despite strong on-chain activity, Ethereum’s market price has not kept pace. According to Gate market data, as of February 3, 2026, the Ethereum price stood at $2,292.9, with a 24-hour trading volume of $672.68M and a market capitalization of $353.69B.
In contrast to price trends, on-chain data continues to improve. Technical indicators show that Ethereum is currently in a deeply oversold state. Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings across multiple timeframes are below the oversold threshold of 30, with the 4-hour RSI even approaching an extremely low level of 20. The current price has fallen below all major moving averages, including the 20-day Exponential Moving Average ($2,824), the 50-day Simple Moving Average ($2,997), and the 200-day Simple Moving Average ($3,654).
Institutional Perspectives and Price Forecasts
Different financial institutions hold varying views on Ethereum’s price outlook. Citigroup forecasts that, under a base-case scenario, Ethereum’s price could fall to $4,300 by the end of 2026. In a bull market, it could rise to $6,400, while in a bear market, it may drop to $2,200. Citigroup analysts believe that network activity remains a key driver of Ethereum’s price, but note that most recent growth has occurred on Layer 2 networks, and the impact of this growth on Ethereum’s mainnet value is still uncertain.
Gate’s own research offers a more granular forecast framework. Gate’s conservative projection for Ethereum’s price range in 2026 is $2,484.73 to $3,105.91. The optimistic forecast ranges from $3,500.00 to $3,727.09, while the technical analysis-based range is $2,286.06 to $2,811.85.
Interestingly, Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, remains bullish on Ethereum, predicting its price could reach $12,000. By 2031, Ethereum’s price could climb to $7,657.97, representing a potential return of 77% from current levels.
Key Shifts in the Ethereum Network
The Ethereum network is undergoing structural changes. Exchange reserves have dropped to historic lows, with only 8.7% of total supply now held on trading platforms—a 43% decline since July 2025. This supply squeeze results from large-scale transfers of assets to staking protocols, Layer 2 networks, and long-term custody solutions, effectively removing these ETH from immediate market circulation. This trend reflects strategic accumulation rather than speculative trading.
Institutional investors are also actively participating in the Ethereum network. BitMine Immersion Technologies recently increased its holdings by 40,302 ETH, bringing its total Ethereum holdings to 4,243,338 ETH—about 3.52% of total supply. Notably, the company has staked 171,264 ETH, raising its total staked amount to over 2 million ETH. This long-term holding and active contribution to network security demonstrate institutional confidence in Ethereum’s long-term value.
The cryptocurrency market is filled with contradictions. Ethereum’s price hovers around $2,292.9, down more than 50% from its all-time high, and its market cap is below its realized value. Yet on-chain data tells a very different story: the network adds more than 420,000 new addresses daily, active users have surpassed 1.2 million, and transaction volume is at record highs. The daily influx of new users even far exceeds the frenzy seen during the 2020 "DeFi Summer." Currently, exchange reserves have fallen to all-time lows, accounting for just 8.7% of total supply, while Layer 2 solutions have pushed transaction fees to their lowest point in nine years. This divergence may suggest that, once the market’s peak fear subsides, a true value re-rating could just be getting started.
