On February 12, 2026, Standard Chartered made its second major revision to its Bitcoin (BTC) price forecast in just three months, slashing its year-end 2026 target from $150,000 to $100,000—a 33% cut. More notably, Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s Head of Digital Assets Research, issued a clear warning: before Bitcoin embarks on a new bull run, it could fall further to $50,000, and may even briefly dip below that key psychological level.
This marks Standard Chartered’s second "target cut" since December of last year, when it lowered its target from $300,000 to $150,000. As one of the first major traditional banks to incorporate Bitcoin into its macro forecasting framework, Standard Chartered’s consecutive revisions send a strong market signal: while institutions remain committed to long-term crypto allocations, near- and medium-term macro headwinds and outflows have surpassed previous optimistic expectations.
Target Price Adjustment Details: From "Ultra-Aggressive" to "Cautiously Optimistic"
According to the full report disclosed by Bloomberg, Standard Chartered’s latest revision covers two core assets:
- Bitcoin (BTC): Year-end 2026 target cut from $150,000 to $100,000
- Ethereum (ETH): Year-end 2026 target cut from $7,500 to $4,000
At the same time, Standard Chartered outlined downside stress-test scenarios: Bitcoin could retreat to around $50,000 before rebounding, while Ethereum could drop as low as $1,400.
This forecast is not an isolated view. Since BTC hit its all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025, the market has been in a deep correction for nearly four months. The Standard Chartered analysis team believes the current market shakeout is not yet complete, and a "final wave of panic selling" could still occur in the short term.
Breaking Down the Pressure: ETF Outflows and Macro "Liquidity Squeeze" Create a Double Bind
A key question on the market’s mind: Why has Standard Chartered cut its forecast twice in less than a quarter? The main pressures stem from two factors: Bitcoin ETF outflows and the repricing of macro interest rate expectations.
Bitcoin ETF Buying Stalls, Cost Basis Under Pressure
The report highlights that since October 2025, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen nearly $8 billion in cumulative outflows, with ETF holdings down by about 100,000 BTC from their peak. More importantly, the average cost basis for ETF investors is now around $90,000—meaning many are sitting on unrealized losses at current prices near $66,000.
Geoff Kendrick writes in the report: "The stall in ETF buying not only weakens marginal demand, but could also trigger stop-loss selling from some investors. If BTC breaks below $65,000, the next support level drops straight to the $50,000 psychological threshold."
Macro Support Delayed, Rate Cut Expectations "Fade"
Unlike previous cycles, this market correction has not been accompanied by clear policy easing signals. The Federal Reserve has maintained a hawkish stance in early 2026, pushing expectations for rate cuts into the second half of the year. Standard Chartered’s macro team notes that until Kevin Warsh officially takes over as Fed Chair, monetary policy uncertainty will continue to cap risk asset valuations.
Market Analysis
As of February 13, 2026, according to Gate market data, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $66,580.7, with a 24-hour trading volume of $768.22M and a 24-hour price change of -1.19%. Overall market sentiment remains "bullish," but short-term momentum has clearly slowed.
| Metric | Data |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $66,580.7 |
| 24h Trading Volume | $768.22M |
| Market Cap | $1.31T |
| Market Dominance | 55.42% |
| 24h Low | $65,111 |
| 24h High | $68,419.7 |
| All-Time High | $126,080 |
From a technical perspective, $65,000 is a key psychological support level that bulls have repeatedly defended. However, trading volume has not meaningfully increased, and the strength of recent rebounds is noticeably weaker than in the first three quarters of 2025. This echoes Standard Chartered’s observation that "upward momentum relies on ETF buying, and ETF buying has yet to return."
Medium- to Long-Term Outlook: Standard Chartered Still Sees $500,000 by 2030
It’s important to note that Standard Chartered’s downgrade only applies to its 2026 forecast and does not alter its long-term $500,000 target for 2030. The bank believes that the core issue in the current market is a mismatch in cycles:
- Short term: Tightening macro liquidity + ETF outflows + weak investor sentiment
- Long term: Continued adoption growth + supply rigidity + structurally higher institutional allocations
Geoff Kendrick emphasizes that this downturn is fundamentally different from the "crypto winter" of 2022: there have been no major collapses among top exchanges or lending platforms, and the market shakeout has been relatively orderly—a sign of a maturing industry.
Additionally, on-chain activity has not shrunk in tandem with prices. Standard Chartered’s monitoring shows that daily transaction counts and active addresses on the Bitcoin mainnet remain near historic highs, with application-layer resilience helping to offset price volatility.
Ethereum Also Under Pressure: $1,400 Could Be a Key Accumulation Zone
For Ethereum (ETH), Standard Chartered has lowered its year-end 2026 target from $7,500 to $4,000, warning that short-term downside risk could extend to $1,400.
According to Gate market data, as of February 13, 2026, ETH is priced at $1,947.19, with a 24-hour trading volume of $205.33M and a 24-hour change of -0.61%. From its all-time high of $4,946.05, ETH has retraced over 60%, and market sentiment is "neutral."
Standard Chartered sees Ethereum’s challenges as primarily stemming from a temporary narrative vacuum. Compared to 2024-2025, the market currently lacks clear catalysts like EIP-1559, the Shanghai upgrade, or large-scale Layer 2 rollouts. The $1,400 region marks a major volume node from the last bull-bear cycle transition; if ETH revisits this level, it could attract long-term capital back into the market.
Conclusion: Caution Is Necessary, But Pessimism Isn’t
Standard Chartered’s consecutive target cuts have undoubtedly chilled market sentiment. But it’s important to distinguish: this is a revision of short-term expectations, not a rejection of the long-term outlook.
From $300,000 to $150,000, and now to $100,000, Standard Chartered is essentially using more conservative assumptions to account for unexpected macro variables. The $100,000 year-end 2026 target still represents roughly 50% upside from the current $66,580.7 price. The $50,000 retest warning is better viewed as a risk scenario under stress, rather than a baseline expectation.
For investors, rather than fixating on "will it fall further," it’s more productive to recognize that the market is undergoing a phase of expectation reset. The timing of an ETF inflow reversal and clearer Fed policy signals will be the real catalysts for the next major trend. As Standard Chartered’s report concludes: "Once the most pessimistic scenarios are fully priced in, the only thing left is how to rebuild confidence."
