Bitcoin Records First Post-Halving Annual Close Decline | Reassessing Cycles, 2025 BTC Price Trends and Opportunities

2025 Bitcoin Price Trend Overview

Entering 2025, Bitcoin experienced a significant rise, with the year’s performance divided into two phases: first, the price soared and reached a peak of about $126,000 in October, followed by a notable decline in the fourth quarter, ending the year with the BTC price oscillating in the ~$87,000–$90,000 range, resulting in a negative return for the year.

This price trend demonstrates extreme volatility and market divergence - from a bull market to a correction and then to consolidation, BTC market sentiment has undergone a steep transformation.

The historical significance of negative returns after Halving

The traditional Bitcoin logic holds that Halving events reduce the supply of new coins, which is beneficial for price increases, and the performances after the past three halvings have confirmed this logic. However, data from 2025 indicates:

• Bitcoin has recorded a negative return for the first time in a year following Halving.
• Although the price once reached a new high, the pullback was significant.
• This trend has triggered the market to reassess the supply and demand logic of the Halving.

This means that the market has gradually shifted from a supply-dominated asset to a risk asset that is more deeply influenced by macro capital flows and risk sentiment.

Market sentiment and capital flow analysis

The market sentiment for BTC in 2025 shows a clear divergence:

• Indicators such as the Fear and Greed Index reflect investor caution;
• Institutional funds have seen a net outflow of ETF funds at the end of the year.
• The price fluctuation range has narrowed, indicating a lack of clear trend signals in the market.

These factors work together, causing BTC to fluctuate in the key price range, and it has not maintained its previous high position.

Has the four-year cycle logic failed?

The Bitcoin community is increasingly engaged in discussions around the four-year cycle:

• Some analysts believe that the traditional cyclical model has reached a phase endpoint;
• Another part believes that the cycle needs to be re-understood in conjunction with the new market structure.

Clearly, a single supply-driven logic is no longer sufficient to fully predict future trends, and it is necessary to combine multiple factors such as liquidity, capital preferences, and institutional behavior.

Investment Strategies and Risk Management Recommendations

For the layout in 2026, investors may consider:

• Establish a multi-level position strategy: during the range oscillation phase, positions can be built in batches;
• Pay attention to macro dynamics and the correlation with risk assets.
• Use technical indicators to identify breakouts and support levels.

In this mature market structure, risk management is more important than simply chasing after increases.

Potential turning point in 2026

Key factors for 2026 include:

• Changes in the global interest rate environment;
• Liquidity levels and capital reallocation;
• Can market sentiment shift from cautious to accommodative.

These factors may become the trigger point for a new round of BTC trends.

Conclusion

Bitcoin recorded its first annual fall after the Halving in 2025, which not only reflects price behavior but also symbolizes changes and maturation in market structure. Investors need to pay attention to the macro environment and capital dynamics while understanding traditional patterns, to view future opportunities from a more comprehensive perspective.