4E: Tariff clouds loom, focus this week on Trump's policy direction and Powell's speech.

On April 14, news from 4E monitoring reported that the global market experienced extreme fluctuations under the intertwining uncertainties of Trump’s tariffs and expectations of The Federal Reserve (FED) easing. After a rollercoaster ride, the US stock market had a strong rebound for the week, with the three major indices achieving their best performance in over a year last week. The S&P rose a cumulative 5.7%, marking its best single-week performance since November 2023, the Dow accumulated a rise of 4.95%, and the Nasdaq accumulated a rise of 7.29%. The seven tech giants index rose a cumulative 8.95%, with Nvidia standing out with a weekly increase of 17.62%. The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant fluctuations, with Bitcoin being affected by the safe-haven sentiment triggered by the tariff war. At the beginning of the week, it plummeted close to $74,000, but then, under the backdrop of Trump postponing reciprocal tariffs and announcing an exemption list, market sentiment improved somewhat, and Bitcoin gradually rebounded to a peak of over $86,000. At the time of writing, it stands at $84,408, with a weekly increase of nearly 7%. Other altcoins also experienced a substantial rebound, although Ethereum’s overall performance remains relatively weak. Despite last week’s market rebound amid the easing of tariff policies, Trump’s latest statement denies a “tariff exemption,” and policy uncertainty remains a major risk. U.S. inflation data (CPI and PPI) came in below expectations, and the Federal Reserve’s March meeting minutes indicated that inflation could be more persistent. This week, close attention should be paid to Trump’s tariff dynamics and Powell’s speech.