Bitcoin Price Prediction: Is the Bull Run Cycle Coming to an End? BTC May Reach Its Peak Within Months

Famous market analyst Rekt Capital recently pointed out that the current Bitcoin bull run cycle may have entered its final stage, with the market peak expected to occur within a few months.

Halving Cycle Model Predicts Peak Time

Rekt Capital’s analysis is based on the historical patterns of Bitcoin halving. By comparing the past trends after Bitcoin halving, he found that BTC usually reaches its cycle peak 518 to 550 days after halving (both the 2016 and 2020 cycles conform to this pattern). According to this model, the current market has gone through a typical post-halving cycle of about 88% and is entering the later stage.

Core Prediction: If history repeats itself, the peak of this bull run may occur between the end of September and mid-October 2025.

Beware of the risks of prolonged cycles

Although some investors expect the current Bitcoin bull run cycle to last until 2026, Rekt Capital warns of the risks of excessive deviation from historical patterns:

• “The danger is that if we keep moving the target back (delaying profit-taking), we may ultimately miss the bull run peak selling opportunity.”
• Although there have been slight extensions of about 30 days in past cycles, relying on this assumption to delay profit-taking is risky.

Unique Aspects of the Current Cycle: Long Accumulation Period

Rekt Capital emphasizes that a notable feature of the Bitcoin halving market in this round is the longest “re-accumulation phase” in history. Since the halving in April 2024, BTC has experienced a high-level sideways consolidation below its historical high for eight months.

Subsequent Trends and Risk Warnings

Currently, the king of cryptocurrencies Bitcoin is still consolidating below its historical high. Analysts point out:

• Similar consolidation phases occurred in both the 2017 and 2021 cycles (manifested as “price discovery corrections” or momentum slowdown), often followed by a surge towards the final top.
• But as the cycle matures, the risk-reward ratio begins to deteriorate: the potential upside space narrows, while the downside risk after the bull run peaks (historical declines of 60-70%) increases.
• Investors should manage the risks of crypto assets, and be prepared for high volatility markets.

Key Advice for Investors

• Prioritize historical patterns, viewing any increase after the prediction time window (end of September to mid-October) as an “extra bonus” rather than a guarantee.
• Focus on Take-Profit Strategy, protect existing profits.
• Beware of the interference from the “new cycle narrative” lacking historical basis.

Gate Latest Market Update: As of the time of writing, BTC has steadily risen over the past week, currently trading at just above 108,840 USD, with a slight decrease of 0.93% in the last 24 hours.