Content source: Uweb live broadcast sharing class
Content Organization: Peter_Techub News
The 185th Uweb live class is themed “Essence of Study Tours in the Greater Bay Area, USA,” hosted by Uweb President Yu Jiayu, together with two outstanding alumni—Crypto investor, founder of Xinguang Baize Boutique Investment Bank Wang Peng (Mr. Peng) and Crypto fund manager A Tian, bringing a wealth of sharing. This session revolves around three core topics: interpretation of Uweb Web3 must-see data weekly report, how American peers lead the industry, and a private discussion among Uweb students on how crypto brokers operate the integration of coins and stocks. Below is a complete summary, deeply analyzing the three major topics and presenting a global perspective and practical strategies for Web3 investment.
- Uweb Web3 Must-Read Data Weekly Report Analysis
This live broadcast is presented by Teacher He Shaofeng, bringing the on-chain data weekly report, providing an in-depth analysis of the latest developments in the Web3 industry, and offering market predictions and operational guidance for investors.
- Market Review and Trend Analysis
This week, the market experienced a pullback, with mainstream cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH, as well as some altcoins, declining, while Solana showed relatively better resistance to the downturn. He Shaofeng pointed out that the current market situation aligns with last week's predictions, indicating that the bull market has not yet reached its end, and the main upward wave is in the mid-term stage. Historical data shows that long-term holders (those holding for over 155 days) have cumulatively distributed 350,000 BTC in this round, which is only half of the previous round (776,000 BTC). The distribution of chips is still ongoing, and there is still room for the bull market to continue. Investors should remain cautiously optimistic and pay attention to the subsequent capital inflow and the reconstruction of market consensus.
- On-chain Data Insights
Position Cycle Storm Chart: Long-term holders are accelerating distribution, and some large whales are converting BTC to ETH, but the market's absorption capacity is insufficient, requiring a re-establishment of consensus to initiate the main bull wave.
UTXO Energy Band: A strong support has formed in the price range of $110,000, with investors showing a strong willingness to buy the dip, filling the “vacuum chip range” and laying the foundation for future increases.
Funding Rate Heatmap: The funding rates for BTC and ETH are healthy, showing no signs of overheated leverage, indicating that the market has not yet reached the peak of a bull market.
Global Momentum Radar: Investor sentiment in the Americas has declined, temporarily suppressing BTC prices, but a rebound in sentiment may indicate the start of a major upward trend.
Liquidity Pulse Chart: The total market capitalization of stablecoins has slightly increased, with a rise in bottom-fishing demand, indicating an influx of funds.
On-chain liquidation curve: short-term holders' losses shrink, speculative funds are washed out, chip structure tends to be healthy, providing support for the market.
- Off-chain Data Highlights
BTC Spot ETF: This week net inflow of $430 million, outflow trend slows down, market confidence recovers.
Macroeconomic Expectations: The market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has reached 86%, and the upcoming employment data may further boost demand.
- Risks and Outlook
Market bullish expectations persist, but caution is needed against the risk of an accelerated decline if prices break below support levels. Trading volume is relatively weak, requiring more liquidity and enthusiasm to confirm upward momentum. He Shaofeng emphasized that the current market has not yet displayed a “booming” climax, and top signals are not evident, allowing investors to seize mid-term opportunities.
II. How American Peers Lead the Industry
The study tour in Silicon Valley, USA, provides guests with a global perspective, revealing how the United States leads the Web3 industry through policies, funding, and innovation.
- The Cognitive Impact of Study Tours in Silicon Valley
Flow Wang Peng: On-the-ground communication in Silicon Valley far exceeds the quality of information domestically, correcting the distorted understanding of blockchain in the Chinese community. The U.S. is driving a “crypto revolution,” showing a deep connection from societal foundations to the Trump family, demonstrating a long-term commitment. The crypto industry has become the third largest lobbying system in the U.S., with clear legislative trends, similar to historical industrial revolutions. The U.S. is utilizing Crypto to “make money” globally, and Chinese investors need to clarify their positioning to seize short-term and long-term opportunities.
A-Tian: As a newcomer, the study abroad experience has validated that traditional cyclical thinking (such as halving or monetary policy) is no longer applicable. The United States promotes the development of Crypto with national power and laws, viewing it as a tool with high certainty. The culture of Silicon Valley incubators supports startups by providing funding and resources, and the open environment is friendly to those who are capable. Crypto is moving from a “small circle” to the mainstream, and the entry of professionals from traditional industries signifies that the industry is entering the “from 1 to 10” phase.
- The impact of crypto on American society and the stability of policies
Flow Wang Peng: Analogous to the real estate boom in China, crypto has integrated into American society, changing wealth distribution and economic structure. A legal expert from Coinbase pointed out that despite sharp contradictions between the two parties, there is a consensus on the crypto legislation, as opponents need to consider the interests of their voters. The high volatility and value capture ability of crypto are reshaping society, and policy support stems from the joint push of voters, capital, and politics; short-term adjustments do not alter the long-term trend.
A Tian: About 30 to 40 million cryptocurrency holders in the U.S. (mostly males aged 20-50) are keen on political participation, which boosts the influence of Crypto. State government pension funds, 401K plans, and university endowment funds allocate 5%-20% to Bitcoin, indicating the mainstreaming of the industry. The stability of policies stems from social trends rather than a single piece of legislation, and short-term electoral controversies are unlikely to reverse long-term directions.
Principal Yu: The logic of the integration of cryptocurrencies and stocks lies in the Bitcoin return rate surpassing that of the US stock market. The United States enhances its competitiveness through the absorption of Crypto. Crypto has become a consensus among the elite and the middle class, and policy support is difficult to reverse. Information in the Chinese community is easily manipulated by interest groups; on-site investigations confirm that the US is the source of the narrative. Investors need to pay attention to the narrative logic and its extension direction.
- Stablecoins, RWA, and digital assets combined with mainstream finance
Flow Wang Peng: Stablecoins enhance the efficiency of cross-border payments (such as Huma project's T+0 payment, with an annual yield of 15%-18%), and the market size is expected to reach trillions of dollars. Hong Kong is a pioneering pilot area, and once the policies on RMB stablecoins are clarified, a deep integration can take place. RWA needs to rely on stablecoins to achieve on-chain liquidity; after on-chain conversion of offline assets (such as government bonds), the value can be amplified through a flywheel effect. The potential for tokenization in the U.S. stock market (STO) is enormous, and policy relaxation will drive breakthroughs.
A Tian: Ordinary investors should focus on infrastructure and financial ecosystems (such as payment, DeFi, DEX) rather than issuing stablecoins. Mainstream public chains (such as Ethereum, Solana) will support RWA, and the value of public chains will grow with the scale of assets. Ethereum is considered “digital real estate”, with great investment potential, and small to medium teams can participate in infrastructure construction to seize high cost-performance opportunities.
- Comparison of Hong Kong and the United States and the Free-Riding Strategy
Flow Wang Peng: The United States attracts entrepreneurs through “physical regulation” and suppresses competition with long-arm jurisdiction. Starting a business requires establishing connections and investing time in the U.S., while investment needs to connect with U.S. channels to gain a first-mover advantage. If unable to go to the U.S., one can lay out plans in Hong Kong, waiting for policy dividends like the stablecoin in RMB, to seize the opportunity of pilot programs.
A Tien: Individual investors should deeply cultivate their familiar fields, and the team should send members to the US/Hong Kong to establish connections. Chinese resources are strong in the US, and investments can benefit by paying attention to US trends and policy dividends (such as the linkage between cryptocurrencies and stocks), participating in public chain and infrastructure investments, and sharing in the global Crypto dividends.
Principal Yu: Hong Kong is a super sandbox, piloting Crypto policies that can be promoted to the mainland in the future. The narrative is led by the United States, and Hong Kong carries out the practice. Investors can grasp the logic of both regions through the Uweb course, preparing in advance for opportunities in RMB stablecoins and RWA.
- Uweb Student Exclusive Session: How Cryptocurrency Brokers Operate Coin-Stock Integration
The internal discussion focuses on how cryptocurrency brokers operate the integration of coins and stocks, with an emphasis on the changes in positions and integration strategies after the study tour.
- Changes in the holding plan after the study tour
Flow Wang Peng: The cognitive impact after studying abroad is greater than the change in positions. The United States discusses Bitcoin reaching 1 million dollars (2030-2033), while the Chinese-speaking region focuses on short-term peak escape (120,000-150,000 dollars), with significant differences in dimensions. He believes that the cycle logic has changed, and the retracement may no longer reach 70%-80%. He tends to hold long-term and reduce short-term operations.
A Tian: Maintain a full position BTC strategy, plan to switch to ETH through on-chain lending operations, and pay attention to public chains such as Solana and Avalanche. Public chains serve as “digital real estate” to carry RWA, with great investment potential. The strategy is primarily conservative, focusing on long-term value appreciation.
Principal Yu: Americans do not sell coins (due to over 40% capital gains tax), but instead borrow against BTC through collateral (with a cost of 4%-6%) and engage in on-chain finance (with a 10% return), maintaining an increase in the amount of held coins. In the Chinese-speaking regions, frequent trading due to the contract market and low tax rates results in a decrease in held coins. It is recommended to learn from the American long-term holding strategy, keeping a core position and appropriately rebalancing.
- In-depth perspective on the integration of crypto and stocks
Flow Wang Peng: The integration of cryptocurrencies and stocks is a long-term trend in the U.S. stock market, with crypto assets bringing new liquidity, circulating back BTC and ETH. Ethereum's strength comes from confidence in diverse assets, and after adjustment, the probability of hitting a new high is significant. The integration does not divert funds; instead, it attracts new capital, similar to how the U.S. stock market absorbs high-growth assets.
A Tian: Questioning the models of traditional treasury companies like MicroStrategy, the ETF could improve or reduce demand. New treasury companies (like Cream and Nakamoto Company) hold 60%-80% BTC/ETH and 20% for incubation business, balancing Beta and Alpha returns, similar to semiconductor concept stocks, which have high short-term popularity but require unique competitiveness.
Principal Yu: The integration of cryptocurrencies and stocks is due to the higher returns of Bitcoin compared to U.S. stocks (since 2019), with investment banks validating its long-term trend. New financial treasury companies are shifting from asset-driven (PB) to earnings-driven (PE), amplifying profit potential. About 15% of the U.S. population (54 million) holds cryptocurrency assets, with PAC influence ranked seventh and policy stability. The Clarity Act is progressing slowly, but the demand for stablecoins indicates a deepening integration.
- WLFI Project and Investment Strategy
Principal Yu: World Liberty Financial (WLFI, current $0.223, 24h -15.74%) is a core project of the Trump family, with DeFi potential, not just a simple meme coin. It combines a triple leverage (assets-coin price-stock price-options) with the USD1 stablecoin ecosystem, looking optimistic in the long term. Currently, the unlocking of 20% puts significant selling pressure, but after the drop, it becomes a buying opportunity, predicting $0.35-$1.20 by the end of 2025. It is recommended to wait and enter the market after stabilizing to avoid FOMO.
Alumni Chen: WLFI management is “rough,” unlocking (20%-25%) is unclear, Trump's past pattern is insufficient, FDV is high (100 billion), the risk of subsequent takeover is large, leaning bearish.
Principal Yu responded: Acknowledges the risk of selling pressure, but emphasizes the deep involvement of the Trump family (holding 1.575 billion coins), active trading (Bybit volume $270 million), significant long-term potential, and the need to DYOR.
Summary and Course Preview
This live broadcast showcases global trends in the Web3 industry through data weekly reports, insights from studying in the United States, and the integration strategy of cryptocurrencies and stocks. The market outlook is bullish in the medium term, with significant potential for stablecoins and RWA. The narrative is led by the United States, while Hong Kong takes on practical implementations. The Uweb Web3 Future Wealth Course (September 26-29, Shenzhen) will delve into the linkage between cryptocurrencies and stocks, BTC/ETH positioning, and on-chain data analysis, inviting KOLs such as Frank and Mo Fei to teach, along with arrangements for opening accounts in Hong Kong and institutional visits to help students seize trend dividends. The principal calls for: the cryptocurrency sector needs a global perspective, connecting resources in Hong Kong and the United States to avoid information silos and seize Web3 wealth opportunities.
