VC angrily criticized Tom Lee's $60,000 ETH prediction as "stupid": Where is the divergence between tokenization boom and Ethereum value capture?

Mechanism Capital partner Andrew Kang publicly criticized Fundstrat CIO Tom Lee's proposed $60,000 Ethereum (ETH) price target on September 24, calling the prediction “stupid”. Kang believes that Lee's optimistic expectations for ETH price rise, particularly based on the arguments of tokenization and stablecoin growth, fundamentally misunderstand the mechanisms of value accumulation. Kang pointed out that while the tokenization market has grown 1000 times since 2020, Ethereum's daily transaction fees remain at a five-year low, indicating that there is not a proportional relationship between activity volume and value capture. Kang himself predicts that ETH prices will consolidate between $1,000 and $4,000 in the long term, in stark contrast to Lee's extremely bullish outlook.

Why do VCs think Lee's bullish prediction is “stupid”?

Andrew Kang believes that Tom Lee's prediction is “stupid,” fundamentally misunderstanding how Ethereum captures value from on-chain activities.

· Misunderstanding of the value accumulation mechanism: Lee's bullish argument is primarily based on the rise of stablecoins and asset tokenization. Kang believes that this argument “fundamentally misunderstands how value accumulation works.”

· Data rebuttal: The rebuttal evidence provided by Kang is that since 2020, the size of the tokenization market has risen 1000 times, yet the daily transaction fees on the Ethereum network remain at their lowest level in five years, essentially the same as the levels of 2020.

· Key Point: Kang believes that activity volume (such as tokenization) does not translate proportionally to network fees. He stated that Lee's argument may lead one to mistakenly think that fees will grow in proportion, but that is not the case.

Banks Will Not Buy ETH: Questions on Institutional Demand

Kang not only questioned the value capture ability of the tokenization narrative but also directly refuted Lee's expectations that large banks and institutions would buy ETH.

· Banks will not buy: Kang asserts that large banks and institutions have not purchased ETH to date and will not bid to purchase in the future.

· Metaphor of oil: He compares ETH to oil, believing that banks will only “pay to purchase” it when they need to use it, rather than hoarding it as an investment asset.

· Competitive Pressure: Kang pointed out that other blockchains focusing on stablecoins are rising, and these competitors with broader distribution channels will eat into ETH's market share, especially in the tokenization field.

Will ETH Fall to $1000? Kang's Prediction and Market Background

Andrew Kang has maintained a cautious attitude towards ETH for a long time and predicts that the ETH price will consolidate within a wider range.

· Long-term consolidation forecast: Kang predicts that the ETH price may fluctuate in the range of $1,000 to $4,000 over the long term.

· Past prediction deviation: In fact, Kang had predicted earlier this year that ETH might fall below $1,000, but the altcoin actually rose 3 times (from $1500 to nearly $5000). This indicates that his bearish prediction may have been premature.

· Market rebuttal signals: Although Kang expressed bearish sentiment, the new demand line (accumulated $21 billion ETH by crypto finance companies led by Lee, such as BitMine) has pushed ETH from $1500 to nearly $5000, achieving an approximate 200% rise.

Key Support and Potential Bullish Factors

In an extremely bearish scenario, $2800 is a crucial technical level.

· Key support: In the extreme bearish scenario predicted by Kang, the key support level to watch is $2,800.

· Multiple confirmations: This price level is crucial because it is both the realized price for accumulation addresses and a key support level that prevents a pullback in the first half of 2025.

· Bullish Background: The number of ETH accumulation addresses has reached a historical high of 27.3 million, coupled with the imminent supply crunch, providing a positive fundamental backdrop for ETH, which may increase the likelihood of the price reaching the $5,000 target.

Conclusion

Andrew Kang's sharp criticism of Tom Lee's extremely optimistic ETH prediction reflects a profound skepticism in the venture capital community regarding the efficiency of value capture in the narratives of tokenization and stablecoins. Kang's argument is based on on-chain data, asserting that activity growth does not necessarily lead to a proportional increase in protocol fees. Although Kang predicts that ETH will consolidate in the long term within the $1000-$4000 range, the surge in institutional demand for ETH, the record high of accumulation addresses, and the backdrop of supply tightening collectively constitute a strong rebuttal to his bearish viewpoint. The market is currently caught in a tug-of-war between two distinctly different macro narratives, with the critical support level of $2,800 becoming an important signal for determining which narrative will dominate the future trend of ETH.

Disclaimer: This article is for news information only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions with caution.