Will Bitcoin soon fall below 100,000 dollars? 3 charts will give you the answer.

The recent adjustment of Bitcoin has caused ripples in the trading community. The price of BTC has fallen from over 120,800 USD to nearly 102,000 USD before bouncing back nearly 9% to over 111,000 USD at the current time. While altcoins like Ethereum and XRP have dropped more than 13%, Bitcoin's 7% decline at the time of press indicates it remains much sturdier — hinting at underlying strength even amidst large liquidations.

The big question is: Can Bitcoin maintain a price above 100,000 USD, or will the price continue to fall below this important psychological level in the near future? The three charts below will help answer this question.

The growth of holders and the calmness of veteran investors

The first sign indicating support comes from the behavior of Bitcoin holders. Although the market has experienced a decline, the total number of Bitcoin holders has increased from 56.92 million to 56.98 million in just one day, indicating that investors are increasing their level of investment as prices fall. This action reflects confidence in buying when prices are low, rather than panic selling.

The number of Bitcoin holders is increasing | Source: SantimentThe coin age bands that have spent (SCAB) prove this. This metric tracks the age of the coins being moved — that is, whether long-term or new holders are spending their Bitcoin.

When the crash began on October 10, the total SCAB stood at around 17,100 BTC, while the 180-day - 365-day (red) range was nearly 9,995 BTC, and the 365-day - 2-year (blue) range was about 2,452 BTC.

During the liquidation process, total SCAB has surged to 23,086 BTC, confirming an increase in spending activity among new holders. In contrast, the red band has slightly decreased to 9,646 BTC, and the green band has sharply dropped to only 535 BTC — indicating that long-term investors remain silent.

This indicates that the panic selling mainly comes from new or medium-term wallets, while long-term holders continue to maintain their positions. Veteran investors typically do not sell unless they anticipate a major drop, such as below 100,000 USD.

The age group index of Bitcoin has spent | Source: SantimentWhen long-term holders are inactive and the total number of holders increases, this often signals that strong players are replacing weak players in the market. This is the type of reset that helps stabilize a fall due to sentiment before the next increase.

Setting Bitcoin price from fall to rise

The price movement of Bitcoin also tells a clearer story. The recent collapse is not entirely due to sentiment — it follows a technical setup that often marks turning points.

The main factor is the bearish divergence on the RSI Indicator, a measure of buying and selling momentum on a scale from 0 to 100. A divergence occurs when the RSI and price move in opposite directions - for example, when the price makes a higher high but the RSI makes a lower high. This pattern often signals that momentum is weakening ahead of a reversal.

That is exactly what happened between mid-July and early October. Bitcoin created new highs on the chart, but the RSI did not confirm them, leading to a lower high.

Bitcoin price divergence | Source: TradingViewAs a result, a strong correction of 19.1% (yesterday), similar to a previous decline due to divergence earlier this year of 14%. These setups indicate that Bitcoin reacts strongly to RSI signals.

Currently, the model has reversed. Between September 25 and October 11, a bullish divergence appeared — price made lower lows while RSI made higher lows. This suggests that selling pressure is weakening, and momentum may be quietly accumulating for a bounce back.

At the time of the press, Bitcoin is trading near 111,600 USD, consistent with the Fibonacci level of 0.5 (111.400 USD). A daily close above this level could confirm a bounce back to 113,600 USD, 116,800 USD, and 120,800 USD.

Bitcoin price analysis | Source: TradingViewThe invalid point is below 109,100 USD, with limited downside at 106,400 USD and 101,900 USD, making a drop below 100,000 USD in the short term unlikely. Only a daily candle closing below 101,900 USD could push Bitcoin price below 100,000 USD.

Mr. Teacher