Betting on the real world, what kind of business are these 8 prediction markets engaged in?

From Polymarket's massive financing to Kalshi's surge in volume, the excitement in the prediction market space has sharply increased. How are these platforms betting on real-world events? (Background: He Yi shouted, “BNB is going to do prediction markets”: Welcome professional frens to participate, YZi Labs leads the investment.) (Background Supplement: Polymarket returns to the U.S., where is the next opportunity for prediction markets?) Recently, the heat in the prediction market space has surged. At the beginning of October, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, ICE, announced an investment of up to $2 billion in Polymarket, bringing its post-investment valuation to about $9 billion; a few days later, the U.S. compliant prediction market Kalshi also completed a $300 million financing, with its valuation climbing to $5 billion. Alongside the massive financing, trading volumes at top platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have skyrocketed, with Kalshi projected to achieve an annualized trading volume of $50 billion this year, capturing over 60% of the global market share, surpassing Polymarket for the first time. In the context of the gradually cooling crypto narrative and tightening regulatory scrutiny, why has the prediction market been brought back to attention? Has its product form really undergone a qualitative change? What new generation projects are attempting to break out of the 'speculation game' old path? Here are 8 representative project samples, from which we can glimpse the different orientations of this space in product design, compliance games, and financing logic. 01 Polymarket, @Ploymarket Polymarket is currently the world's largest prediction market platform, having raised $2.279 billion in massive financing. In October, the parent company of the NYSE, ICE, committed to investing up to $2 billion in it, bringing Polymarket's pre-investment valuation to $9 billion. Polymarket was founded by Shayne Coplan in 2020. Shayne participated in the Ethereum ICO investment during high school and is regarded as a 'genius' figure in the crypto circle. In the face of regulatory pressure, Polymarket acquired the derivatives trading exchange QCEX, which holds a CFTC license, for $112 million in 2025, thereby obtaining legal operating qualifications in the U.S. Polymarket is a classic way of playing in the prediction market, where users can use crypto assets to bet on the outcomes of various real-world events, participating in the market by purchasing 'prediction shares', where each share represents a bet on a specific outcome. When the event result is revealed, users holding shares of the correct result can obtain corresponding profits. The entire trading process is conducted on-chain, settled in USDC, ensuring both the stability of funds and enhancing transparency. 02 Kalshi, @Kalshi Kalshi is the first licensed compliant comprehensive prediction market exchange in the U.S., having raised $515 million, led by Paradigm and a16z. Kalshi was founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara at MIT. The two founders chose a difficult but compliant path, engaging in a long-term game with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), ultimately becoming the first prediction market platform to obtain regulatory permission from the CFTC. Kalshi has offered contracts for various events, including political elections, economic indicators, and sports events since opening the U.S. market in 2021. In 2024, it won the qualification to launch contracts for the U.S. presidential election through litigation, filling the compliance gap. 03 The Clearing Company, @theclearingco The Clearing Company is a prediction market launched by the former teams of Kalshi and Polymarket, having raised $15 million in financing. CEO Toni Gemayel previously served as the platform growth leader for both Kalshi and Polymarket. The platform is currently in the preparation and development stage, with the team placing great emphasis on simplifying the user experience, hoping that the new product will be as easy for ordinary users as using Robinhood or Coinbase, while also emphasizing the design of compliant products. From the conceptual perspective, these products attempt to find a compromise between the two ends, neither straying too far from regulatory requirements nor trying to lower the user understanding threshold, but whether they can truly establish an effective market ecology remains to be seen. 04 Limitless, @trylimitless Limitless is a high-frequency prediction market, providing short-term price prediction contracts ranging from minute-level to daily, having raised about $7 million in financing from well-known crypto funds such as 1confirmation and Coinbase Ventures, founded by CJ Hetherington and others in 2023. Limitless is officially set to launch on the Base Mainnet in May 2025, and will subsequently expand to Layer 2 solutions like Arbitrum. Its product form is closer to traditional futures exchanges, allowing users to bet on 'Yes/No' in short-cycle price markets, with a preset expiration time, and the result determined by an on-chain Oracle Machine during settlement. In terms of data performance, Limitless has created numerous scenarios for scalping transactions, with some users utilizing quick and clear results for short-term arbitrage. However, due to this, criticism has arisen within the community: some users pointed out that the platform once launched markets with outcomes that were already determined or almost impossible to occur without charging transaction fees, such as BTC price markets within 1.5 hours, which were abused by arbitrageurs to inflate trading volume. The team has since responded that they have optimized market creation rules to eliminate such situations. 05 Opinion, @opinionlabsxyz Opinion Labs (O.LAB) has currently raised $5 million in financing, led by YZi Labs, with other investors including Echo, Animoca Ventures, Manifold Trading, Amber Group, and others. In terms of progress, Opinion has launched the prediction market on the Monad Testnet to gather community feedback and has a cooperative background with Binance Labs. 06 Melee, @meleemarkets Melee is a new prediction market backed by the Variant fund, claiming to create 'Viral Markets' — allowing any topic to generate prediction markets and acquire traffic through viral dissemination. It has already completed $3.5 million in financing, with investors including Variant and DAO Builders Alliance (DBA). Co-founder and CEO Max previously served as the strategy lead at Ava Labs and founded a short video influencer brand, having unique insights into community operations and business strategies. As of now, Melee is still in the development and pre-heating stage, with no formal product launch yet. The official website currently only provides an entry for waiting list registration, allowing candidates to join through binding X accounts. According to official sources, the 'viral market' concept promoted by Melee includes three major features: any topic can become a market, creators can realize a closed loop, and early participants are incentivized…