Bitunix Analyst: Fed Falls into "Data Blind Spot" ADP Supply Cut and Shutdown Storms May Significantly Impact Decision-Making Credibility

According to Mars Finance news, on October 23, the Fed faced another blow. Due to the ongoing government shutdown leading to a disruption in statistics, even the long-term partner ADP has halted providing high-frequency employment data to the Fed, leaving the decision-makers in an unprecedented “data vacuum” before the meeting from October 28 to 29. It is reported that Powell personally intervened to salvage data sharing, but ultimately to no avail. This means that the Fed will assess policies in the absence of immediate labor market data, significantly increasing the risk of decision-making misjudgment. On a macro level, the U.S. government shutdown has entered its 22nd day, approaching the longest record in history. The Oxford Economics Institute warns that if the deadlock continues until mid-November, it may overlap with the holiday season, leading to a collapse in consumer confidence and causing “persistent trauma.” The market is beginning to bet that the Fed may end the balance sheet reduction early, or even be forced to significantly cut interest rates in December to cope with potential recession risks. U.S. Treasury yields have fallen, the dollar index is fluctuating, and market deleveraging sentiment is rising. Observing the partial liquidation heatmap of the crypto market, BTC has formed a dense liquidation zone above $114,000, while strong support absorption appears in the range of $105,000 to $106,000. Macroeconomic uncertainty coupled with the contraction of dollar liquidity has led to a rise in short-term capital risk aversion sentiment, with the risk of expanded volatility. Bitunix analysts' view: The Fed's data failure means reduced policy transparency and distorted market signals. When the basis for decision-making is distorted, capital tends to rely more on real-time market prices as the “only credible indicator,” which actually poses a relative advantage to the liquidity pricing mechanism of the crypto market. In the long term, data sovereignty and information transparency will become the new battlefield for monetary trust.