Dogecoin price faces its biggest challenge — any bounce back efforts below the critical threshold risk failure.

Dogecoin (DOGE) rose 1.4% on the day, but the bounce back is still not truly solid. After falling up to 20% in the past month, the price of DOGE is currently facing its biggest challenge in the short term: a resistance zone that has repeatedly hindered all recent recovery attempts.

Below this price zone, the selling pressure remains very strong, causing DOGE to be constrained within the narrowest range for several weeks.

Long-term investors withdraw, short-term buyers enter the market

The Hodler Net Position Change index ( has changed the net position of holders ), which tracks the buying and selling trends of long-term investors, has shifted to a negative signal. On October 16, these investors accumulated an additional approximately 109.8 million DOGE. However, by October 22, this number had dropped to only 38.3 million DOGE, equivalent to a decrease of up to 65% in accumulation activity.

Dogecoin holders are panicking | Source: GlassnodeThis reflects the caution of long-term investors as they actively reduce their holdings after several weeks of a weak market. Since then, the price of DOGE has remained almost flat, only falling slightly by 1.5% over the past seven days, indicating that there is still buying support, preventing the price from dropping further.

In this context, short and medium-term investors are striving to maintain their positions. According to data from HODL Waves, the two main holding groups have continuously increased their proportions. Specifically, the group holding from 1 week to 1 month has increased its market share from 5.59% to 5.98% since October 15; the group holding from 3 months to 6 months has also increased from 7.36% to 8.15%.

Short to medium-term DOGE buyers are active | Source: GlassnodeThe struggle between investor groups has formed a “price ceiling” around the zone $0.20–$0.21, causing DOGE to be constrained within a narrow range. Typically, additional buying power from larger groups — especially whales (whale) — could help break this price ceiling. However, this time there may be deeper factors hindering DOGE's breakout potential.

Data on cost allocation explains why Dogecoin has not been able to surpass the price ceiling

The cost basis distribution heatmap ( has somewhat explained the reason why this OG meme coin has not been able to break through. There are two largest supply clusters — ranging from $0.202 to $0.206 and $0.210 to $0.212 — holding approximately 11.16 billion DOGE and 11.14 billion DOGE respectively. Additionally, there are many smaller clusters with fewer DOGE distributed within this range.

![Dogecoin price faces its toughest challenge])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-e5bc8cb0a8334e6a57c04c9dc0882386.webp(Heatmap of Dogecoin price | Source: GlassnodeThis heatmap shows where most DOGE was last bought, thus forming one of the strongest resistance zones in the short term. Whenever the price enters the zone of $0.20–$0.21, strong selling pressure immediately arises as investors exit near the breakeven point. This supply pressure has continuously halted any upward momentum since October 11, making this area the most “stubborn” barrier for DOGE.

![Dogecoin price faces its toughest challenge])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-50685982272e922057669ca21380979a.webp(Main DOGE supply cluster | Source: GlassnodeOnly when the “whales” start buying more aggressively can they absorb this supply and create momentum for DOGE to break through resistance. Until then, the price of DOGE is likely to remain constrained in the current trading zone.

![Dogecoin Price Faces Most Difficult Challenge])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-73df6e4e9bda60cac84c9f278ef282ed.webp(Dogecoin Price Analysis | Source: TradingViewIf DOGE can break above $0.21 )equivalent to an increase of about 12% from the current level(, the upward trend could extend to $0.27. Conversely, if it falls below $0.17, the price of DOGE risks returning to the zone of $0.14.

Mr. Teacher